empty
06.12.2022 06:45 PM
EURUSD: Euro recovers bullish position

The acceleration of business activity in the US services sector from the ISM sent EURUSD to a knockdown, but during the European trading session, the euro began to recover. This happened due to the growth in German manufacturing orders by 0.8%, which was better than Bloomberg's forecast of +0.1% MoM, and the statement of the European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane that the inflation slowdown in November does not mean that the peak is over. It could come in 2023. It looks like the leading economy of the currency bloc is not feeling as bad as expected, and the ECB is not thinking of pausing in the process of tightening monetary policy.

Dynamics of production orders in Germany

This image is no longer relevant

Thus, positive statistics on the US strengthened the dollar, and on the currency bloc—the euro. The principle of "strong economy means strong currency" continues to work, although all these data have a local impact on the EURUSD dynamics. The fate of the main currency pair will be determined next week, by December 16. The release of data on US inflation and the Fed meeting will become a litmus test of the readiness of sellers of the US currency to continue the beating of their opponents that began in November.

The impact of the energy crisis should not be underestimated either. According to ING, the rise in oil prices due to the EU embargo and the G7's bandwagon against Russian black gold, as well as cold weather in Europe, will lead to a tighter gas market, which will have a negative impact on EURUSD. The company predicts that the euro will fall below $1,045, with a further decline by the end of the year.

So far, this scenario has not materialized. Despite serious restrictions on the movement of Russian oil, there is no growth in Brent quotes, and increased reserves of blue fuel in Europe smooth out the negative from expectations of a cold snap and an increase in demand. Storage occupancy is currently around 91%.

Dynamics of gas reserves in Europe

This image is no longer relevant

Lane's speech did not bring preferences to either "bulls" or "bears" in EURUSD. On the one hand, the chief economist doubted that the peak of inflation was passed, which indicates a continuation of the tightening cycle of monetary policy, at least in 2023. On the other hand, he said that when making decisions, the ECB should take into account the cumulative effect of previous increases in the cost of borrowing . The rate has already increased by 200 bps. Such rhetoric signals the intention of the European Central Bank to raise it not by 75 but by 50 bps.

This image is no longer relevant

In my opinion, ahead of the release of inflation data in the US on December 13 and the announcement of the results of the FOMC meeting on December 14, EURUSD will storm, but up and down movements will be local in nature, eventually forming a consolidation.

Technically, the upper limit of the estimated EURUSD trading range is in the area of 1.0565–1.061, the lower one is in the area of 1.0385–1.0445. The growth of quotes of the main currency pair, followed by a rebound from resistance, should be used for sales. On the contrary, unsuccessful assaults on supports are for the formation of longs.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

El Bitcoin se vende fácilmente

Mientras el mercado debate cómo afectará la legislación sobre las stablecoins, la reanudación de las amenazas arancelarias de Donald Trump deteriora el apetito global por el riesgo y contribuye

Marek Petkovich 13:41 2025-06-02 UTC+2

Los litigios judiciales entre Trump y las empresas sobre los aranceles influirán negativamente en los mercados (existe la probabilidad de que continúe la caída del precio del Bitcoin y del Litecoin)

Los mercados mundiales siguen bajo la fuerte influencia de los acontecimientos que ocurren en Estados Unidos, que tanto en el ámbito político como en el económico se comportan como

Pati Gani 12:57 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 30 de mayo. La justicia prevaleció, ¿pero por cuánto tiempo?

El par de divisas el par GBP/USD el jueves se consolidó por debajo de la línea media móvil, mientras que el dólar creció durante tres días consecutivos. Sin embargo, todo

Paolo Greco 07:40 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 30 de mayo. Jaque a Donald Trump.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó un débil movimiento descendente durante la primera mitad del jueves, pero en la segunda mitad se disparó bruscamente al alza. Vimos un fuerte estallido

Paolo Greco 07:40 2025-05-30 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 27 de mayo. La libra esterlina se mantiene estable.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su movimiento alcista el lunes. Es importante señalar de inmediato que la situación con el euro es bastante complicada e inestable. El euro

Paolo Greco 07:28 2025-05-27 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 27 de mayo. El presidente dijo, el presidente cambió de opinión.

El par de divisas EUR/USD reanudó su movimiento alcista durante la sesión del lunes desde la apertura del mercado. Otra caída del dólar estadounidense la semana pasada fue provocada

Paolo Greco 07:28 2025-05-27 UTC+2

El caos en los mercados continuará (hay probabilidad de una continuación de la caída local del #USDX y del precio del oro)

Los mercados continúan actuando a ciegas en medio de las acciones caóticas de D. Trump, quien intenta sacar a EE.UU. de la más profunda crisis integral como el barón

Pati Gani 11:26 2025-05-23 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 22 de mayo. El mercado vuelve a responder sin ambigüedades a Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD continuó su movimiento hacia el norte el miércoles, aunque a primera vista no había razones claras para ello. Sí, el nivel de inflación (el único

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 22 de mayo. Un nuevo golpe al dólar: «One big beautiful bill act».

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó su movimiento ascendente durante el miércoles. El dólar estadounidense lleva cayendo sin pausa por más de una semana, algo que no sucedía en todo

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

El Bitcoin se convierte en víctima de estafadores

La confianza en el mundo financiero no solo puede perderla el dólar estadounidense. La información sobre el robo de datos de aproximadamente 197 mil clientes de Coinbase, la mayor plataforma

Marek Petkovich 14:05 2025-05-19 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.