In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.2986 and planned to make market entry decisions from that point. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break down what happened. A decline and a false breakout at that level triggered a buying opportunity for the pound, resulting in a gain of more than 100 points.

To Open Long Positions on GBP/USD:

Strong UK GDP data triggered another wave of pound appreciation. During the U.S. session, news of a decline in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for March and weak results from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index could prompt new buying of the pound. However, considering the substantial rise earlier in the day, it's best to act on pullbacks.

A false breakout around the support at 1.3057 will offer a good entry point for long positions targeting a rebound toward the resistance at 1.3139. A breakout and retest of this range from top to bottom will provide another entry signal for long positions, with the prospect of updating 1.3204, potentially forming a new bullish market. The ultimate target will be the 1.3262 zone, where I plan to lock in profits.

If GBP/USD declines and there's no buyer activity at 1.3057 in the second half of the day, pressure on the pair may return by the end of the week. In this case, only a false breakout around 1.2986 would offer a proper buying condition. I also plan to open long positions immediately on a rebound from 1.2929, aiming for a 30–35 point intraday correction.

To Open Short Positions on GBP/USD:

Sellers attempted to make a move, but the solid fundamental backdrop continues to support the pound. If GBP/USD rises again during the U.S. session after comments from Fed officials and U.S. inflation data, a false breakout around 1.3139 will provide an entry point for short positions, targeting a drop to the new support at 1.3057. A breakout and retest of this level from below will trigger stop-loss orders and open the path toward 1.2986, where the moving averages lie, currently favoring the bulls. The ultimate target will be 1.2929, where I will take profits.

If demand for the pound holds in the second half of the day and bears remain inactive around 1.3139, it's better to delay selling until a test of resistance at 1.3204. I will sell there only after an unsuccessful consolidation. If there is no downward movement there either, I'll look for short entries around 1.3262, solely expecting a 30–35 point intraday correction.

COT (Commitment of Traders) Report:

The COT report for April 1 showed a small increase in short positions and a reduction in long ones. It's important to note that the report does not reflect the recent U.S. trade tariffs imposed on key economic partners, including the UK, nor the latest March U.S. employment data. Therefore, detailed analysis of the figures is not meaningful as they don't reflect the current market situation.

According to the report, long non-commercial positions fell by 4,030 to 104,986 and short non-commercial positions rose by 5,627 to 64,733. The net position gap increased by 479.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

Trading is taking place above both the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating the pair is still in a corrective uptrend.

Note: The moving average periods and prices are analyzed on the H1 (hourly) chart, which may differ from classical daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands:

In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.2929 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average – identifies the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise.
  • 50-period = yellow line
  • 30-period = green line
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence)
  • Fast EMA: 12
  • Slow EMA: 26
  • Signal SMA: 9
• Bollinger Bands – indicates market volatility.
  • Period = 20
• Non-commercial traders – speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain criteria.
• Long non-commercial positions – total open long positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions – total open short positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Net non-commercial position – the difference between short and long positions held by non-commercial traders.