empty
14.05.2025 05:59 PM
EUR/USD Analysis on May 14, 2025

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair has shifted to a bullish formation and continues to hold that stance. I believe no one doubts that this transformation occurred solely due to the new U.S. trade policy. Until February 28, when the sharp decline of the U.S. dollar began, the wave pattern was forming a convincing downward trend segment, building out corrective wave 2. However, Donald Trump's weekly announcements of various tariffs took their toll. Demand for the U.S. dollar started to plummet, and now the entire trend segment, beginning on January 13, has taken on an impulsive upward form.

The market didn't even manage to form a convincing wave 2 within this trend segment. Only a small pullback appeared, smaller in size than the corrective waves in wave 1. However, the U.S. currency may continue to decline unless Donald Trump dramatically reverses his adopted trade policy—which, as demonstrated on Monday, he very well might.

The EUR/USD rate increased by 100 basis points on Tuesday and another 100 on Wednesday, effectively erasing Monday's drop. On Monday, many market participants regained hope, believing the "dark days" for the dollar were over—but Tuesday and Wednesday proved that assumption wrong. Even though the U.S. and China moved toward de-escalating the trade war, the dollar didn't benefit. In my view, the problem for the dollar is no longer the trade war or the Fed's monetary policy. The issue lies with Donald Trump himself. Trust in the U.S. economy is declining; trust in a government that could spark a conflict at any moment is inherently low. Thus, the market is signaling that no matter how many deals Trump signs, it is not ready to return to the dollar.

From a wave analysis perspective, though, everything looks quite favorable. The bullish trend segment continues to develop—something that would hardly be possible under normal circumstances when the market responds sensitively to news negative for the dollar. If traders prioritized the trade war, then the de-escalation has already begun. A deal with the UK has been signed, tariffs for most countries have been reduced to 10%, and tariffs with China have been cut by 70–80%. What more does the market need to increase demand for the U.S. currency?

However, if the market has simply decided to sell the dollar regardless of the reasons (which seems more likely), then no news will spark renewed demand for the dollar.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish trend segment. In the near term, the wave structure will entirely depend on the position and actions of the U.S. president. This should be kept in mind at all times. Wave 3 of the upward trend has begun, and its targets may extend up to the 1.25 level. Their achievement will depend solely on Trump's policies. At this point, wave 2 within wave 3 appears to be nearing completion. Therefore, I consider buying with targets above the 1.1572 level, which corresponds to 423.6% on the Fibonacci scale. However, Trump could easily reverse the upward trend at any moment.

On the higher time frame, the wave structure has also transitioned to bullish. A long-term sequence of upward waves is likely ahead—but Trump's headlines can still turn everything upside down once again.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and prone to frequent changes.
  2. If you're uncertain about the market, don't enter it.
  3. There's never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop-Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

SP500 25 de abril. ¡Subimos siguiendo a Bitcoin!

Desde el punto de vista de las ondas de Elliott, en el índice se está formando una gran tendencia impulsiva en una perspectiva global. No hace mucho se completó

Roman Onegin 10:06 2025-04-25 UTC+2

NG 12 Feb. ¡Los toros mantienen el rumbo hacia un máximo de 4,31!

El marco temporal de cuatro horas muestra el trazado de una onda activa principal (Y), que tiene una forma interna compleja y es un doble zigzag de un nivel

Roman Onegin 07:26 2025-02-12 UTC+2

SP500 12 de febrero. ¡Después de la finalización de la segunda parte del impulso, el precio puede subir más activamente!

Lo más probable es que se esté formando una tendencia alcista mayor en el panorama global del SP500, cuya estructura es similar a la del impulso. Si nos fijamos

Roman Onegin 07:26 2025-02-12 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 7 de julio. ¿Dónde se encuentra la raíz de todos los problemas del dólar?

El conteo de ondas en el gráfico de 4 horas para el instrumento EUR/USD permanece sin cambios. Actualmente estamos observando la formación de la supuesta onda

Chin Zhao 15:58 2024-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 6 de julio. El destino complicado del dólar.

El conteo de ondas en el gráfico de 4 horas para el instrumento EUR/USD permanece sin cambios. Actualmente estamos observando la formación de la supuesta onda

Chin Zhao 15:57 2024-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 6 de julio. La libra quiere caer, pero no puede.

La estructura de ondas del instrumento GBP/USD sigue siendo bastante complicada y muy confusa. Alrededor del nivel de 1.2822, que corresponde al 23.6% de Fibonacci y está cerca del pico

Chin Zhao 15:57 2024-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 22 de junio. El mercado espera la primera bajada de los tipos de interés en agosto.

El patrón de onda para el instrumento GBP/USD sigue siendo bastante complicado y confuso. Un intento exitoso de romper el nivel de Fibonacci del 50,0% en abril indicó

Chin Zhao 13:12 2024-06-22 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 22 de junio. La Fed: No está lista para el aterrizaje.

En el gráfico de 4 horas, no hay cambios en la marca de la onda para el instrumento EUR/USD. En este momento, observamos la construcción de la esperada onda

Chin Zhao 10:51 2024-06-22 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 8 de junio. Los británicos retrocedieron, pero no se rindieron.

El patrón de onda para el instrumento GBP/USD sigue siendo bastante complicado. El intento exitoso de romper el nivel de Fibonacci del 50,0% en abril indicó que el mercado está

Chin Zhao 08:27 2024-06-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 8 de junio. El BCE confía en una mayor desaceleración de la inflación.

El patrón de onda del gráfico de 4 horas para el instrumento EUR/USD se mantiene sin cambios. En este momento, estamos observando la construcción de la onda esperada

Chin Zhao 08:26 2024-06-09 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.