empty
26.06.2025 12:41 AM
Yen Is Back in the Game

The yen failed the test as a safe-haven currency. The Israel–Iran conflict triggered a correction in USD/JPY toward a downtrend. For most of the year, investors had the impression that the Japanese currency had stripped the U.S. dollar of its status as the primary safe-haven asset on Forex. However, once Donald Trump announced a ceasefire, the bears on this pair regained their footing.

The pullback in USD/JPY was driven by the economic characteristics of the two countries. While the United States is a net exporter of energy commodities, Japan is an oil importer. A Brent crude rally slows Japan's economic growth and weighs on its currency. Fortunately, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran returned Brent to its previous levels. As a result, the yen could return to its time-tested strength — monetary policy divergence.

Dynamics of Japanese Inflation

This image is no longer relevant

At its June meeting, the Bank of Japan deemed it appropriate to keep the overnight interest rate at 0.5% despite elevated inflation levels. The primary argument was a slowdown in economic activity due to uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariffs. If the situation becomes clearer, the BoJ would be ready to tighten its monetary policy, especially since consumer prices in May accelerated to a new two-year high of 3.7%. Following this, Board Member Naoki Tamura called for a swift increase in borrowing costs.

Judging by Jerome Powell's address to Congress, the Federal Reserve has options. If inflation accelerates due to tariffs while the U.S. economy remains strong, the federal funds rate will stay at its current 4.5% level for an extended period. Conversely, a continuation of the disinflationary trend alongside a cooling labor market could prompt monetary easing as early as July. This divergence in central bank stances underpins the downtrend in USD/JPY.

Correlation of Funding Currencies with Risk

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

While investors still question whether the yen has overtaken the U.S. dollar as the primary safe-haven asset, the greenback is taking on a different role — the main funding currency. Its sensitivity to risk has declined compared to rivals like the yen and the euro. Meanwhile, the return on carry trades involving emerging market currencies — such as the Indian and Indonesian rupiah, the Turkish lira, the South African rand, and the Brazilian real — has jumped to 8% in 2025. For comparison, losses from euro-based carry trades were 2.2%, and returns from using the yen were only 2.6%.

From a technical standpoint, on the daily USD/JPY chart, a rebound from the fair value level of 144.9 highlights the strength of the bulls. For the correction to gain traction, they must break through resistance at 146.15. This would open the way for long positions. On the contrary, a drop below 144.9 would be a signal to sell.

Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Igor Kovalyov
Start trade
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. El yen y la política: un lunes difícil para la moneda japonesa

Al inicio de la nueva semana de negociación, el par USD/JPY no puede determinar la dirección de su movimiento. Los traders no logran decidir cómo reaccionar ante las elecciones

Irina Manzenko 12:03 2025-07-21 UTC+2

La UE prepara un contraataque

Durante el fin de semana se supo que EE. UU. impondrá aranceles del 30% a todos los productos de la UE a partir del 1 de agosto de este

Jakub Novak 10:58 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 14 de julio. Tranquilidad, solo tranquilidad.

El par de divisas GBP/USD mostró una caída bastante significativa durante el viernes. En general, la libra esterlina ha estado cayendo durante 2 semanas, y este es un hecho

Paolo Greco 07:49 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 14 de julio. La posición de la Fed y Trump permanece sin cambios.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó el viernes con un movimiento descendente suave y débil. Como ya hemos mencionado muchas veces, el movimiento actual es una corrección en estado puro

Paolo Greco 07:49 2025-07-14 UTC+2

El oro volvió a subir

El precio del oro se estabilizó después de un fuerte aumento observado durante la sesión asiática de hoy. Los operadores siguen prestando mucha atención a las amenazas de imposición

Jakub Novak 10:31 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 9 de julio. ¿Qué implica la "Ley maravillosa" de Trump?

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el martes volvió a moverse a la baja, lo cual sigue causando cada vez más sorpresa. Por supuesto, ya hemos dicho en múltiples ocasiones

Paolo Greco 05:22 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 9 de julio. ¿Qué juego está jugando Trump con los aranceles?

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el martes mantuvo un ánimo de corrección. No hubo eventos macroeconómicos en este día, sin embargo, Donald Trump "leyó toda la lista" de países

Paolo Greco 05:22 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 8 de julio. Nadie necesita más el dólar, Trump está indignado.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el lunes descendió ligeramente, pero todavía no se puede hablar de una tendencia bajista. Desde el punto de vista técnico, el par permanece

Paolo Greco 07:54 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 8 de julio. Elegante. Donald Trump prolongó los plazos del "período de gracia".

El par de divisas EUR/USD se negoció durante el lunes con una inclinación bajista, aunque probablemente no hubo motivos de peso para el fortalecimiento del dólar. Recordemos que durante

Paolo Greco 07:54 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 7 de julio. El mercado vuelve a posponer sus expectativas sobre el recorte de tasas de la Fed.

El par de divisas GBP/USD también se mantuvo en el mismo lugar durante el viernes, ya que en ese día la sesión comercial estadounidense, en esencia, no funcionaba. No hubo

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-07-07 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.