Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1801 level occurred just as the MACD indicator was beginning to rise from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. However, after a 15-point increase, demand weakened.

Positive Eurozone services PMI data offered only modest support for the euro. The market's limited reaction to favorable macroeconomic figures suggests a pause in activity ahead of key U.S. employment data. The June nonfarm payroll report will be critical. If job growth exceeds expectations, the dollar may strengthen, particularly if there are signs the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates to curb inflation. On the other hand, weak employment data could force the Fed to reconsider its policy approach, negatively impacting the dollar. A rise in the unemployment rate could trigger a larger sell-off of the dollar against the euro.

Additionally, market reaction to the jobs report may be unpredictable and influenced by various external factors. Therefore, it is essential to consider the broader context and act cautiously when making decisions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on executing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:Today, consider buying the euro around the 1.1800 level (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1852. At 1.1852, I plan to exit and consider selling in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Euro appreciation is more likely if U.S. data disappoints.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1778 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a market reversal to the upside. The expected targets are 1.1800 and 1.1852.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1778 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1724, where I plan to exit and consider buying in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 point reversal). Pressure on the pair is likely to return if U.S. data is strong.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the euro after two consecutive tests of the 1.1800 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would cap the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. The expected targets are 1.1778 and 1.1724.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for long positions;
• Thick green line – projected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further growth is unlikely above it;
• Thin red line – entry price for short positions;
• Thick red line – projected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further decline is unlikely below it;
• MACD indicator – use overbought/oversold zones as guidance for entries.

Important Reminder for Beginner Forex Traders:Exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of key economic reports to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-losses can quickly wipe out your deposit, especially when trading large volumes without money management.

Lastly, remember that successful trading requires a clear, structured trading plan—like the one presented above. Making impulsive decisions based on current market noise is a losing strategy for any intraday trader.