Friday Trade Analysis:

EUR/USD 1H Chart

The EUR/USD pair stayed flat all day Friday, with volatility totaling 36 points, clearly indicating a lack of trading activity. This is not surprising, as the U.S. was celebrating Independence Day, and all banks and stock exchanges were closed. Naturally, there were no important publications or events on this day. The only event was another speech by Christine Lagarde—her sixth in the past two weeks. However, the pair's lack of movement shows that Ms. Lagarde didn't announce anything significant this time either.

EUR/USD 5M Chart

On the 5-minute timeframe, not a single trading signal was formed on Friday—again, not surprising given the market's inactivity. Thus, there were no valid grounds for opening any positions.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues its uptrend, despite having broken the upward trendline. The fact that Donald Trump is President of the United States remains sufficient for the U.S. dollar to continue weakening regularly. Of course, the dollar will undergo periodic corrections, but given the broader fundamental backdrop, any strong upward move remains unlikely. The pair may remain range-bound for a few more days, followed by another dollar sell-off. Last week, there was macroeconomic support for the dollar—but it failed to provide any tangible help.

On Monday, EUR/USD may continue to move sideways or trade with low volatility. No major events are scheduled for the first trading day of the week.

On the 5-minute timeframe, pay attention to the following levels: 1.1198–1.1218, 1.1267–1.1292, 1.1354–1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455–1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1561–1.1571, 1.1609, 1.1666, 1.1740–1.1745, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908.

On Monday, only two reports are expected: industrial production in Germany and retail sales in the eurozone. However, such data in 2025 generally fails to spark market interest. These publications are not expected to provide meaningful support to the U.S. dollar.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. Signal strength is determined by the time it takes for a signal (bounce or breakout) to form—the less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false signals form near a certain level, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate multiple false signals—or none at all. At the first signs of flat trading, it's best to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened between the start of the European session and the midpoint of the U.S. session. After this window, all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, MACD signals should only be used if there is strong volatility and a confirmed trend, supported by a trendline or channel.
6. If two levels are located close to each other (5–20 points apart), treat them as a single support/resistance zone.
7. When a trade moves 15 points in the correct direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.

What's on the chart:

• Support and resistance levels: Price targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines: Trend channels or trendlines that show the current trend direction and the preferred trading bias.
• MACD (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—used as a supplementary signal indicator.
• Important speeches and economic reports (always listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. During such events, trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sudden price reversals.

Beginner Tip:

Not every trade can be profitable. A clearly defined strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term success in Forex trading.