Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1671 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the downward move exceeded 50 pips.

The published data showing a 0.3% increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index in June supported the U.S. dollar. On a year-over-year basis, inflation accelerated to 2.7%. This acceleration in inflation once again drew the attention of market participants to potential changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Expectations for a prolonged period of high interest rates increased, which in turn supported the dollar against other major currencies. Going forward, U.S. inflation dynamics will remain a key factor in determining the direction of the currency market. Investors will closely monitor upcoming Fed meetings and statements from its officials to assess the likelihood of rate cuts this year.

Today's session is notable for the release of Eurozone trade balance data and Italy's inflation figures. While these indicators are unlikely to have a strong impact on investor assessments of regional economic resilience, they should still be reviewed. The Eurozone trade balance is a key indicator of the competitiveness of European businesses on the global stage. A surplus (exports exceeding imports) signals a favorable environment, stimulates economic growth, and strengthens the euro. Conversely, a negative balance may indicate industrial weaknesses and declining competitiveness. Italy's Consumer Price Index is a key inflation indicator for the country. Price growth has a direct impact on consumer spending and purchasing power.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be considered upon reaching the 1.1627 level (indicated by the green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1657. At the 1.1657 level, I plan to exit the market and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 pip move from the entry point. Euro growth today can only be expected within the scope of a correction.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests the 1.1607 level twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1627 and 1.1657 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1607 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1582, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 pip rebound). Downward pressure on the pair may resume at any moment today.

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move down from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests the 1.1627 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and result in a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1607 and 1.1582 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.