02.04.202616:00:00UTC+00Atlanta Fed GDPNow Trims Q1 2026 U.S. Growth Outlook to 1.6%

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s closely watched GDPNow model has revised down its estimate for U.S. economic growth in the first quarter of 2026, easing to 1.6% from a prior reading of 1.9%. According to the latest update on 2 April 2026, the forecasted pace of real GDP expansion has moderated but still points to a positive, if subdued, growth trajectory.

This adjustment suggests that incoming data over the quarter has been slightly weaker than earlier anticipated, softening expectations for the strength of U.S. activity at the start of the year. While the GDPNow model is not an official forecast, markets and analysts often track its movements closely as a high-frequency gauge of the underlying economic pulse.

The downward revision from 1.9% to 1.6% for the same first-quarter 2026 period may reinforce a cautious tone around the U.S. outlook, as investors weigh the implications for corporate earnings, consumer demand and the potential path of monetary policy. Further updates to the GDPNow estimate will be watched for signs of either stabilisation or additional loss of momentum in the months ahead.