empty
04.01.2023 10:43 AM
Is Bitcoin preparing to update the local bottom in Q1 2023?

Bitcoin remains unwaveringly committed to an indifferent flat movement in the first days of January 2023. The cryptocurrency managed to achieve local success and form a green candle, thanks to which the asset reached the level of $16.8k.

However, if we trace the weekly path of Bitcoin to current positions, we can note low trading volumes, as well as low investment activity of long-term investors. Certain categories of hodlers continue to sell off their BTC holdings.

This image is no longer relevant

According to data from Glassnode, the number of addresses with a balance of more than 1,000 BTC has dropped to 2,000. The figure has reached a three-year low, indicating a lack of consensus among long-term investors regarding Bitcoin.

In part, this fact indicates that the period of large-scale consolidation and redistribution of BTC volumes continues. However, throughout 2022, the market became convinced that the best catalyst for the movement of BTC coins is a crisis situation and a sharp drop in price.

Is Bitcoin heading toward $10k?

According to experts of the largest investment company VanEck, the cryptocurrency market is heading for this scenario. Analysts are confident that the first quarter of 2023 will be characterized by an aggravation of crisis processes and high volatility.

This image is no longer relevant

It is expected that Bitcoin will continue its downward movement and update the local bottom near the $10k–$12k levels. According to VanEck experts, this will be affected by the current state of the mining industry. The rise in the price of energy resources and the cost of mining BTC provoke huge losses among the miners.

Recall that, on average, for each BTC mined, mining companies incur a loss of about $3,000. It also recently became known that the total credit debt of public mining companies is more than $4 billion. VanEck experts consider these factors to be key in the future fall in the price of the cryptocurrency.

This image is no longer relevant

Recall that the warning about "several difficult months" was contained in a letter to the employees of the largest crypto exchange Binance. Also, the average percentage of BTC price drop from the high is 85%. As part of the current bear market, the asset lost about 77%.

This image is no longer relevant

Presumably, when the price of Bitcoin reaches the $10k–$12k area, the percentage of the fall from the high will be approximately 82%–85%. Given these data, forecasts from VanEck experts have every chance of becoming a reality.

SPX and Bitcoin

A regular guest of analysis of the situation around Bitcoin, the S&P 500 index is more relevant today than ever. If you look at the SPX annual price chart, you can see that despite the massive drop after 2021, the asset is still overheated.

This image is no longer relevant

Given the approaching recession and the focus of investors on capital preservation, the fall of SPX may continue. Bank of America and BNP Paribas forecast that the S&P 500 will end 2023 at $3,400.

This image is no longer relevant

As of January 4, the stock index quotes are close to $3,800. A fall to the $3,400 level will mean that the asset's capitalization will lose another 8%–10%. Given that SPX is the flagship of the stock market, a corresponding movement should be expected on other instruments.

BTC/USD Analysis

In the medium term, there is every reason to believe that Bitcoin will update the local bottom, which will cause the next stage of capitulation and redistribution of capital. At a distance of a year, the asset may resume its upward movement and reach the level of $30k, according to VanEck experts.

This image is no longer relevant

A key factor in the recovery movement of the Bitcoin price may be a reversal of the Fed's policy. More than 2/3 of economists from the 23 largest financial institutions expect the Fed to ease monetary policy in the second half of 2023, according to a WSJ survey.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said there are plans to increase the key rate to the 5%–5.5% level. At current rates, the indicator will reach the indicated milestone by March–April 2023, just in time for the end of the first quarter of 2023.

Results

The crypto market has survived most of the bear market, however, many factors point to the need for a final dive. Given this, we should not expect significant recovery movements in the BTC price in the first half of 2023.

The main stage of the price recovery and consolidation movement in preparation for the 2024 bull market will begin in the second half of 2023. Until then, the investment environment in the crypto market will be toxic and unattractive due to the recession and future bankruptcies of crypto companies.

Artem Petrenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Artem Petrenko
Start trade
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

加密貨幣週

在比特幣和以太坊正在進行修正且進展頗佳的同時,美國的立法者和加密貨幣倡導者正準備迎接對於數位資產立法至關重要的一周。本周可能以穩定幣法案於週五落入總統特朗普的桌上作結。

Jakub Novak 11:19 2025-07-15 UTC+2

7月15日加密貨幣市場交易建議

比特幣從歷史高點的 $123,000 下跌,目前價格為 $117,000,這反而增加了它的吸引力。以太坊也已經跌至3000美元以下,之前剛嘗試突破3200美元。

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:31 2025-07-15 UTC+2

比特幣市值超越Amazon

比特幣已達到新的歷史高點,接近 $122,000,市值超越 Amazon。此事件無疑是在加密貨幣和傳統金融史上的一個具里程碑意義的時刻。

Jakub Novak 10:52 2025-07-14 UTC+2

7月14日加密貨幣市場的交易建議

比特幣再創歷史新高,升至超過 $122,000,延續其連勝勢頭。以太坊也有所增強,交易價格超過 $3,000,但尚未達到歷史最高點。

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:53 2025-07-14 UTC+2

2025年7月14日比特幣預測

比特幣 儘管市場普遍情緒趨向於避險,比特幣正表現出極大的勇氣。然而,如果這種情緒持續下去,比特幣增長的上限也將變得可見——125,190,這是兩年價格通道的上邊界(以綠色標識)。

Laurie Bailey 05:31 2025-07-14 UTC+2

萊特幣正在嘗試測試其最近的阻力位,於2025年7月11日星期五。

萊特幣,星期五,2025年7月11日。 萊特幣成功突破並收於樞紐水平之上。

Arief Makmur 08:00 2025-07-11 UTC+2

北美交易時段7月10日加密貨幣市場交易提示

在歐洲交易時段,比特幣和以太坊今日上漲,這表明昨日的買入行為並非一次性事件,市場中的買家仍然活躍。這也意味著進一步上漲的可能性仍然存在。

Miroslaw Bawulski 16:25 2025-07-10 UTC+2

加密市場顯示出極低的波動性

比特幣的波動率已降至歷史低點,而比特幣本身的交易價格距其歷史最高點僅差2%。在當前價格下缺乏購買意願可能成為未來看漲勢頭的一個嚴重障礙。

Jakub Novak 13:46 2025-07-09 UTC+2

儘管美元波動,加密市場仍顯韌性

在昨天的下跌之後,BTC/USD 今天再次上漲,總體上保持其看漲勢頭。從基本面來看,中期條件繼續支持 BTC/USD 的增長。

Jurij Tolin 14:14 2025-07-08 UTC+2

日本的 Metaplanet 數位銀行

儘管受到ETF基金的大量需求驅動,比特幣始終拒絕下跌,日本公司Metaplanet正計劃利用其比特幣儲備創建日本第一家數位銀行。 這項宏大的計劃不僅突顯了加密貨幣在傳統金融系統中日益增長的合法性,還為銀行業的創新開闢了新的前沿。

Jakub Novak 13:46 2025-07-08 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.