Forex Analysis & Reviews: 12.01.2023 - GBP/USD. Analysis for...

12.01.2023 05:13 PM

GBP/USD. Analysis for January 12, 2023

The wave markup for the pound/dollar instrument currently appears rather complex, but it doesn't call for any explanations and starts to diverge dramatically from the markup of the euro/dollar instrument. Our five-wave rising trend segment has the form a-b-c-d-e and is most likely already finished. Since there has been a very active departure of quotes from previously set highs in recent weeks, the possibility of the British market finishing the upward segment of the trend is noticeably higher. As a result, I can say that the downward part of the trend has started to shape and will include at least three waves. Additionally, the recent spike in the instrument's quotes could be wave b of this trend segment, which can take the form of a five-wave or a five-wave pulse. However, the drop of the British should continue because there has only been one downward wave created thus far, and it has not been in the strongest or most compelling shape. Naturally, the rising portion of the trend can continue for an indefinite amount of time and have any duration. This situation, however, is not a typical one. I continue to attempt to expand upon the conventional wave structures, which can be utilized for both work and prediction.

The corrective wave b is still accumulating.

The pound/dollar instrument's exchange rate rose by 80 basis points on Thursday, but the day may end substantially lower than the current levels because it frequently happens that the instrument moves swiftly in both directions after significant news, first abruptly in one direction and then the other. The increase over the past week may be seen as wave b, therefore the wave marking as a whole is now clear. Nevertheless, if we want to see well-known wave formations that make it simpler to work and profit, the demand for US money needs to start increasing once more. We can see something similar for the British, which we would like to avoid, given that the upward section of the trend for the euro continues to get more problematic.

The same inferences apply to the pound/dollar instrument now as they did to the euro/dollar instrument. Both instruments are equally affected by the news on American inflation. The sole distinction is that the Bank of England's interest rate is 3.5%, while the ECB's rate is 2.5%, giving it the potential to raise rates more quickly and aggressively. The majority of economists point out that the British economy would be hit harder by the recession in 2023–2024 than other economies, which could weaken the British rate this year. Starting with this premise, it becomes clear that demand for the euro is rising rather organically, as the ECB rate is the one that can experience the highest growth this year. The British continue to predict that a downward wave c will develop, but they also state that wave b must finish developing this week. The UK will release some fascinating reports tomorrow that, despite being unlikely to be robust, could support the dollar.

Conclusions in general

The building of a downward trend section is still assumed by the wave pattern of the Pound/Dollar instrument. According to the "down" reversals of the MACD indicator, it is possible to take into account sales with objectives around the level of 1,1508, which corresponds to 50.0% by Fibonacci. The upward portion of the trend is probably over, however, it might yet take a lengthier shape than it does right now.

The euro/dollar instrument and the picture seem extremely similar at the larger wave scale, which is fortunate because both instruments should move similarly. Currently, the upward correction portion of the trend is almost finished (or has already been completed). If this is the case, a downward portion will likely be built for at least three waves, with the possibility of a dip in the region of figure 15.

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Wave analysis

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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