Forex Analysis & Reviews: 27.03.2023 - GBP/USD: Pound strengthens...

Live Chat

This section features the most important information about trading with InstaForex. We provide both analysis from leading experts for experienced traders and articles on trading conditions for beginners. Our services will help increase your profit potential.

Become Trader

开户

另见

交易条件

外汇分析

图表

This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.

Start as Beginner

如何开始交易

有用信息

Training and recordings

InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.

Become Investor

PAMM 系统

外汇跟单系统

被动投资

OYS 帐户

Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.

Become Partner

主页

合作伙伴区域

同盟的优势

This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.

All Promo Campaigns

Bonuses

比赛

事件

Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.

Full details

论坛

我们在社交网络

外汇幽默

外汇门户

InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.

Learn More

History

为什么选择我们

InstaSport

法规

公司新闻

奖项

InstaForex 明星

InstaForex 线下

Headquarters

关键文件

的社会责任

InstaForex洛普莱斯队 - 达喀尔拉力赛的正式参与者

27.03.2023 02:31 PM

GBP/USD: Pound strengthens on improved macro statistics and hawkish BoE

The Bank of England is changing its mind, and encouraged by its unwillingness to hint at the end of the monetary policy tightening cycle, the pound feels like a fish out of water. Everything goes to the fact that the recession in the U.S. economy will come faster than in Britain, which inspires the GBPUSD bulls to new attacks. And even a new wave of panic around the European banking system in general and Deutsche Bank, in particular, did not scare sterling fans much.

In March, the Bank of England raised the repo rate for the 11th time in a row by 25 bps and brought it to 4.25%, the highest since the global financial crisis of 2008. It said the country's banking system remains resilient and that it may need to raise borrowing costs further to fight inflation. This message contrasts with Andrew Bailey's recent speech, which warned markets against betting on higher borrowing costs. Although, that's not the only change in BoE's sentiment.

Dynamics of the repo rate and inflation in Britain

Four months ago, the Bank of England predicted a prolonged and deep recession for five consecutive quarters, making reference to the energy crisis and the negative consequences of Brexit. In March, Bailey said that there is a very high probability that the British economy will avoid a recession this year.

Indeed, despite February's unexpected jump in inflation from 10.1% to 10.4% on an annualized basis, the population continues to spend aggressively, and businesses report expanding their activities. UK retail sales, for example, rose 1.2% in the final month of the winter after rising 0.9% month-on-month in January. Despite the composite Purchasing Managers' Index down from 53.1 to 52.2 in March, the index is above the critical 50 mark, indicating that the economy is expanding.

Dynamics of business activity in Britain

Thus, the discrepancies are obvious. If because of the banking crisis, investors are increasingly talking about an imminent recession in the United States, the Bank of England has changed its mind and says that there will not be a recession. Jerome Powell signaled a pause in the Fed's tightening of monetary policy, with the derivatives market giving an 87% chance of keeping the federal funds rate at 5% in May. At the same time, investors expect the repo rate to continue rising.

Divergences in economic growth and in the monetary policy of central banks create a solid foundation for an upward trend in GBPUSD. Of course, no trend is complete without corrective movements, but pullbacks, for instance, related to the panic about the banking crisis, makes sense to use for buying sterling against the U.S. dollar.

Technically there is a high probability that GBPUSD will leave the medium-term consolidation range of 1.18–1.24 and will restore the bullish trend. We remain focused on long positions in the direction of the previously announced targets at 1.235 and 1.26.

你今天已经点赞上这篇文章了

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。