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30.05.2023 02:06 AM
GBP/USD概述。5月30日。英镑在周一创下了波动率的反记录。
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周一,英镑/美元货币对没有任何变化。正如文章标题所述,波动性创下了“反记录” - 仅为37点。37点实际上意味着没有任何运动。即使在5分钟的时间框架内,也无法处理它们。我们甚至不记得最后一次货币对表现出这种不愿意移动的情况。几年前,市场长时间不愿意交易。那时,欧元的平均波动性为40点,而英镑为60-70点。在这里需要理解的是,对于欧元货币来说,40点太少了,而对于英镑来说,60-70点也太少了。但是,60-70点至少是一些东西,而40点甚至没有理论上的机会来处理。如果此时还开始出现平局,那么可以直到市场结束前都不必进入市场。

我们之前已经注意到了近几个月来波动率的下降。这意味着所有最重要的全球因素已经得到了处理,现在需要新的因素来进行市场交易。正如我们之前所说,目前这样的因素很少。我们认为,直到央行开始暗示货币政策放松或通货膨胀率不降至3-3.5%之前,这两个货币对都可能表现出弱势或甚至明显的平盘。然而,英国在不久的将来显然不会面临这种情况。

因此,英镑和欧元一样,可以继续平静地下跌,偶尔在“技术”上进行调整。本周英国“空荡荡”,而在美国,重要的发布只计划在星期四和星期五。因此,在星期四之前,我们可以继续观察市场的完全被动行为。它之前的不活跃交易只表明缺乏积极交易的因素。因此,星期二和星期三的运动也可能非常微弱。

目前没有全球基本面。周一宣布,BA的利率可能再次上升1-2次,但我们已经谈论了一个多月。欧洲央行和英格兰银行都接近紧缩结束的时刻。当经济处于衰退边缘时,利率不能永远上升。因此,通货膨胀和利率之间的相关性已经不存在。利率因素已经发挥作用。在全球范围内,没有新的市场影响因素。

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過去5個交易日,GBP/USD的平均波動率為77點。對於英鎊/美元這對貨幣來說,這個值是“中等的”。因此,我們預計在5月30日星期二,它將在1.2279和1.2433之間波動。如果Heiken Ashi指標反轉向下,這將表明新的下行趨勢。

最近的支撐水平:

S1-1.2329

S2-1.2299

S3-1.2268

最近的阻力水平:

R1-1.2360

R2-1.2390

R3-1.2421

交易建議:

在4小時的時間框架內,GBP/USD總體上繼續向南移動,因此短期持倉仍然有效,目標為1.2299和1.2279,直到價格穩定在移動平均線之上。如果價格穩定在移動平均線之上,則可以考慮長期持倉,目標為1.2421和1.2433。

建議閱讀:

EUR/USD pair review. May 30. The problem with the US debt limit: the matter remains unresolved.

Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD on May 30. COT report. Detailed analysis of the pair's movement and trading deals.

Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD on May 30. COT report. Detailed analysis of the pair's movement and trading deals.

Explanations for the illustrations:

Linear regression channels - help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, the trend is currently strong.

Moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) - determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should be conducted.

Murray levels - target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility levels (red lines) - the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators.

CCI indicator - its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or overbought area (above +250) means that a trend reversal is approaching in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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