विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 24.01.2019

24.01.2019 11:14 AM

Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for January 24, 2019

USD/CHF has been quite volatile and corrective at the edge of 0.9950 area recently from where it is expected to move lower in the coming days. Amid the government shutdown in the US and downbeat economic reports, USD is expected to extend weakness against CHF in the coming days.

US economic growth is set to be affected by the longest government shutdown. Its negative impact will follow. The probability of recession in the US in the next 12 months is assessed at 20% like last month. The chance of recession in next two years is around 40%. According to Michael Morgan, the overheated economy in the US and unstable inflation rates alongside monetary policy tightening may undermine momentum in not-too-distant future. Recently US Existing Home Sales report was published with a decrease to 4.99M from the previous figure of 5.33M which was expected to be at 5.27M and HPI remained unchanged at 0.4% which was expected to decrease to 0.3%. Today US Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected have a negative result of an increase to 219k from the previous figure of 213k, Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 53.5 from the previous figure of 53.8, Flash Services PMI is expected to decrease to 54.0 from the previous figure of 54.4, and CB Leading Index is expected to decrease to -0.1% from the previous value of 0.2%.

On the CHF side, recently Swiss National Bank Governor Andrea Maechler stated that negative interest rates and a readiness to intervene in the foreign currency markets are still needed to ward off a rise in the franc that would trigger deflation in Switzerland. SNB wants the Swiss currency to be weak. They have observed that when the Franc goes strong, inflation goes negative. SNB Officials agree that negative rates are difficult, but it is needed for the stability of the economy and their investment strategy recently worked very well, thus promising good economic prospects.

Meanwhile, CHF is currently quite optimistic amid the hawkish rhetoric of SNB officials whereas USD is struggling for gains amid the government shutdown which is increasing the economic slowdown risk day by day. In the future weaker USD is expected in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently pushing lower after certain correction at the edge of 0.9950 area from where it is expected to push lower towards 0.9850 and later towards 0.9700 area in the future. As the price remains below 1.00 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.9700, 0.9850

RESISTANCE: 0.9950, 1.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE