विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 10.05.2019

10.05.2019 01:26 AM

The dollar is waiting for a storm

Markets are not hiding their concern about the new round of aggravation of the trade conflict between the largest economies in the world. Currency traders are trying to understand what exactly the US president wanted to say through Twitter. It is possible that Donald Trump's recent emotional comments are more than an improvement in the trading position in anticipation of a possible increase in duties on Chinese goods on Friday.

In addition, there are parallels with criticism of the US President against Jerome Powell. D. Trump requires the Fed to lower rates. But why? The economy, as what the United States is trying to present, is very strong. The central bank ignores the tweets of the White House's host. In the case of the Fed, D. Trump has his hands tied, he has no right to dismiss the head of the regulator or change the composition of the FOMC. He can afford to let more in foreign policy.

It is impossible to refer to the weakness of the US economy. It is difficult to imagine when its GDP has accelerated to 3.2% and unemployment has fallen to a half-century low. China, whose share of exports in nominal GDP is 18.3%, and the share of supplies to America - 3.5%, is more interested than anyone else in ending trade disputes.

As for the Americans, their position will be unenviable if the conflict with Beijing continues, so Washington does not need to deceived itself by exaggerating its abilities to survive the trade war painlessly. The introduction of tariffs on all Chinese imports will hurt consumers, deduct 0.3 pp from GDP and slow it down to 2% by the end of the year. That's not all. Financial performance of US companies will deteriorate, stock indices will fall. The fall in the growth of world trade and the economy contributes to the strengthening of the dollar, which the White House does not need at all.

It is unprofitable for the parties to continue the conflict, and the deal may eventually take place. If you look at volatility's mediocre growth in forex, then we can assume that the hope for a peaceful settlement of differences remains.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen rose to a 3-month high against the dollar on Thursday. This suggests that investors are losing their nerves.

The main victims of the escalation of the US-China conflict were the Australian dollar, the US dollar and the offshore Chinese yuan. Meanwhile, in the past, the greenback benefited from the growing scale of trade problems.

EUR/USD does not want to go far from the level of $1.12, trading in a narrow range. Perhaps the outcome of the next round of talks in Washington will trigger it.