विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 26.01.2023

26.01.2023 08:25 AM

Breaking forecast for EUR/USD on January 26, 2023

Since the macroeconomic calendar was absolutely empty, the euro returned to its local high and may climb even higher amid the US statistical reports, especially the GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2022. The initial estimate is likely to show a slowdown to 1.6% from 1.9%. This could hardly be considered a positive factor for the greenback. Since there are more and more rumors about an inevitable recession, a slowdown in economic growth may only fuel fears. That is why the GDP data is enough to spur a further decline in the US dollar. What is more, forecasts for the US unemployment claims are also gloomy. Thus, the overall number of claims may increase by 16,000. In particular, the number of initial claims may surge by 12,000, whereas the number of continuing claims may increase by 4,000. In other words, all the forecasts are negative. If the predictions come true, the euro will soar to new local highs.

US GDP Growth Rate

The number of long positions on the euro resumed rising. As a result, the quote approached the local high of the upward cycle from January 23.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is hovering in the upper area, which corresponds to the bullish sentiment among traders. On the daily chart, the indicator approached the overbought area but did not cross it. Under the current conditions, it points to traders' great interest in long positions on the euro.

On the four-hour and daily charts, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which confirms the uptrend.

Outlook

If the price consolidates above 1.0940 at least on the four-hour chart, the volume of long positions will increase. In this case, the mid-term uptrend is likely to continue, allowing the pair to approach the psychological level of 1.1000.

The alternative scenario presupposes a bounce off the local high like it was on January, 23.

In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that the in the short-term, intraday, and mid-term periods, the indicators are pointing to the upward cycle.

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