विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 31.01.2023

31.01.2023 07:37 AM

Mike Novogratz: Bitcoin will eventually reach $500,000, but not anytime soon.

Bitcoin is confidently moving to the level of $24,350 on the 4-hour TF. But as we are seeing now with the euro, there has been a pause in the upward momentum in recent days. Keep in mind that the euro and bitcoin are currently in a similar situation. Unlike the dollar, the euro is seen as a dangerous currency, while bitcoin is the riskiest form of investing. Both of these assets fell when the Fed and other central banks across the world started actively raising rates. Both assets have become more active as the time for the end of monetary policy tightening comes closer.

We have consistently questioned the validity of the euro's increase in recent weeks. The QT program is still in operation, and the Fed is still raising interest rates. That is, just because tightening has slowed down doesn't mean that it has completely stopped. Naturally, market participants can predict some future occurrences and patterns. However, it is important to keep in mind that the rates will likely stay high for a very long time. Thus, according to theory, 2023 shouldn't see any significant growth. Also, keep in mind that the bullish trend for bitcoin has not yet begun. When the price surpasses the significant level of $24,350, which may serve as the side channel's upper limit, it will be possible to discuss such a trend.

At the same time, Mike Novogratz, the CEO of Galaxy Digital, predicted that bitcoin will reach a price of $500,000 but that it would take longer to get there than anticipated. According to Novogratz, "the Fed's actions, which decided to demonstrate its ability to combat rising inflation and hiked rates from 0% to 4%, are the primary cause of the fall of bitcoin." As a result, all of the assets that we thought would be useful for hedging inflation started to decline. According to the CEO of Galaxy Digital, this is the primary cause of the bitcoin market's decline. At present, the crypto industry is struggling as a result of several significant players declaring bankruptcy, but these difficulties will pass and the sector will grow stronger and more established. As a result, the prices of digital assets will rise as well. However, it will take time; Novogratz estimates that it may take 5 or 10 years for bitcoin to reach the $500,000 threshold.

The first cryptocurrency's rise continues with a target of $24,350 over a 4-hour period. From our perspective, a rebound from the level of $24,350 will serve as a signal to close any long positions and begin new short positions with targets of $18,500 and $17,582. The fundamental background should ideally steadily improve so that Bitcoin can continue to rise. Bitcoin might theoretically start a bullish trend. We have not seen this thus far.

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