विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 21.03.2023

21.03.2023 10:40 AM

Bitcoin stabilizes near $28k: should we expect continued rise?

After a strong start to the week, Bitcoin slowed down and consolidated near the $28k mark. The cryptocurrency moved to the consolidation stage, which significantly reduced the level of volatility in the market. Despite this, investors expect further growth of the asset, given the statements of regulators of developed countries.

At the same time, Bitcoin came close to an important resistance level, where a large-scale accumulation stage took place in the spring of 2022. The price of the cryptocurrency managed to reach this level, but subsequently a strong reaction from the sellers stopped the upward movement of BTC.

Is the Fed changing its monetary policy?

For the last week and a half, the cryptocurrency market is growing due to the crisis in the U.S. banking sector and the Fed's response. The regulator is trying to solve the issue of liquidity in the banking system, thereby stimulating the growth of BTC.

The situation risks becoming even more pleasant for cryptocurrencies as the Fed, the ECB, as well as the regulators of England, Japan and Switzerland announced the start of a stimulus program. Central banks plan to increase liquidity in U.S. dollar swap lines.

This will greatly alleviate the liquidity problem and could trigger another round of Bitcoin's bull run. Some of the leading U.S. banks expect more decisive steps from the Fed at tomorrow's meeting.

Markets are pricing in a 70% chance of a 25 basis point increase. However, the possibility of maintaining the current rate level or reducing it is gaining more and more popularity. But, it is important to understand that the problem of inflation remains.

The IMF warns financial markets of being overly optimistic about a rapid decline in inflation. Given this, in the medium term, Bitcoin will have to deal with the renewed aggressive policy of the Fed.

BTC/USD Analysis

However, the medium-term outlook is not preventing the cryptocurrency from updating local price highs. As of March 21, Bitcoin is trading near the $27.5k level with $40 billion in sagging trading volume.

It is also reported that despite a bullish week, crypto funds showed an outflow of $95 million. This is the sixth week of withdrawals from cryptocurrency products, indicating that large investors are cautious.

At the same time, it became known that Tether "printed" another $1 billion USDT. Usually, such actions by a stablecoin issuer entail bullish impulses. However, given the influx of BTC coins to exchanges, it can be assumed that the increase in USDT volumes was the result of the profit-taking process that had begun.

Technically, Bitcoin moved into the consolidation stage after an unsuccessful entry into the $30.1k–$31.6k area. Also, the asset looks overbought on the stochastic oscillator and RSI. At the same time, MACD continues its upward movement, which indicates the strength and stability of the bullish trend.

Investors are waiting for the key reason to enter the asset—the Fed meeting, which will be held tomorrow. Given this, trading activity today, March 21, sank a little, and therefore we should expect a stabilization movement of BTC/USD within the $26.7k–28k area.

Results

Given the likely outcome of tomorrow's Fed meeting, we can assume that Bitcoin will make the final push to the $30.1k–$31.6k area. Subsequently, the asset is waiting for a corrective movement, where the key support levels will be the $23k–$24.5k and $20k–$21k areas.

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