विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 03.05.2023

03.05.2023 09:12 AM

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 03/05/2023

Even a rise in inflation in the eurozone couldn't move the market. The movement that took place might be regarded as symbolic, especially given the significance of the data. Such caution is caused by not wanting to take risks, as today the Federal Open Market Committee meeting will take place. And it's not about interest rates. By now nobody doubts that the Federal Reserve will raise the refinancing rate by twenty-five basis points. This decision will not affect the market, unlike the subsequent statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The market expects that today's rate hike will be the last, and the US central bank will finally begin preparing for subsequent monetary easing. If this does happen, the dollar will likely depreciate. After all, tomorrow the European Central Bank should raise its refinancing rate by fifty basis points. However, if Powell does not give a clear answer to this question, or even hints at the possibility of further interest rate growth, then in this case, the dollar will actively rise. So everything depends on Powell's words.

During the retracement phase, the British pound fell below the 1.2500 mark against the US dollar, but this movement did not lead to anything radical. The market still maintains a bullish sentiment, with the recent update of the local high of the medium-term trend as evidence.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving within the average level of 50, which may indicate stagnation. At the same time, the indicator's location in the area of the middle line can be the primary technical signal for the end of the retracement phase.

On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs have numerous intersections, which corresponds not only to stagnation but also to the end of the retracement phase.

Outlook

A primary signal for the end of the retracement phase is when the price returns above the 1.2510 level. At the same time, the main technical signal for an increase in the volume of long positions is when the price stays above that level.

In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term period, technical indicators are signaling the possibility of growth. In the intraday period, there is an alternate signal due to the possible end of the retracement phase. In the medium-term period, the indicators are focused on the uptrend.

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