विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 16.04.2025

16.04.2025 06:48 PM

No Progress in Negotiations

This week, the European Union and the United States made no significant progress in resolving trade disputes, as officials from President Donald Trump's administration indicated that most of the U.S. tariffs imposed on the bloc would not be lifted.

Despite the negotiations, both sides held firm to their positions. U.S. representatives insisted that the EU must make substantial concessions and lower trade barriers for American goods. In turn, European negotiators argued that the tariffs imposed by the U.S. are unfair and violate World Trade Organization rules. Of particular concern to European officials were the steel and aluminum tariffs, which they claim are seriously harming European industry. They also expressed alarm over U.S. plans to introduce additional tariffs on European cars.

Rumors suggest that EU Trade Committee head Maros Sefcovic left the meeting without clarity on the U.S. stance. American officials indicated that the 20% reciprocal tariffs, which Trump reduced to 10%, as well as other tariffs targeting sectors like autos and metals, would not be lifted immediately.

It's worth recalling that uncertainty surrounding Trump's chaotic tactics—filled with delays, retreats, new threats, sudden exemptions, and trial balloons—has already led to a sharp rise in the euro and a weakening of the U.S. dollar. Clearly, this trend is likely to continue.

The EU proposed that both sides eliminate all tariffs on industrial goods, including automobiles, but Trump has so far rejected this offer. Experts have repeatedly pointed out that although Trump seems to be banking on a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and auto parts to boost domestic production, the outcome may not be so straightforward.

Elsewhere, in Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney stated that his government would allow automakers to import U.S.-made cars and trucks duty-free, as long as the companies continue to manufacture vehicles in Canada. This move provides some relief from the trade war for companies like General Motors and Stellantis, which have assembly plants in Ontario but export large volumes of vehicles from the U.S. to Canada.

Technical Outlook for EUR/USD:

Buyers now need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1420 level. Only then can a test of 1.1467 be expected. From there, a climb to 1.1525 is possible, though achieving this without support from major market players will be challenging. The ultimate target is the 1.1545 high. In case of a decline, serious buying interest is expected only around 1.1340. If there's no activity at that level, it would be prudent to wait for a retest of the 1.1260 low or to consider long positions from 1.1165.

Technical Outlook for GBP/USD:

Pound buyers need to take control of the nearest resistance at 1.3300. Only then can they aim for 1.3345, a level that will be difficult to break above. The next target would be the 1.3390 area. In case of a decline, bears will attempt to reclaim control over 1.3250. If they succeed, a breakout below that range would deal a serious blow to the bulls and could push GBP/USD down to the 1.3180 low, with further downward potential toward 1.3130.

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