empty
16.05.2025 10:21 AM
EUR/USD. May 16th. A Challenging Path for the Dollar

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair twice declined toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1181 and bounced off it both times, signaling a reversal in favor of the euro. This opens the door for continued growth today toward the resistance zone at 1.1265–1.1282. A firm close below 1.1181 would favor the U.S. dollar and a renewed decline toward the support zone at 1.1074–1.1081. Bears are still holding the market, but the pressure is mounting.

This image is no longer relevant

On the hourly chart, the wave structure remains straightforward. The last completed upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the most recent downward wave broke the previous low—thus maintaining the bearish trend. News of progress in U.S.-China trade talks supported the bears, but they still have many hurdles to overcome before claiming victory.

Thursday's fundamental backdrop offered little help to either bulls or bears. Reports from both the Eurozone and the U.S. were strikingly mixed. Eurozone industrial production jumped by a record 2.6% in March, but GDP growth slowed from 0.4% q/q to 0.3% in Q1. In the U.S., retail sales rose by 0.1% m/m in April—beating expectations—but the Producer Price Index unexpectedly declined by 0.5%. Rather than the inflation acceleration promised by Jerome Powell, the data suggest further disinflation may be ahead.

At some point, even Powell may be forced to concede, and the Fed might reduce rates—despite the FOMC president's firm stance last meeting that no such action was necessary. Throughout Thursday, the market moved sideways in response to the contradictory data, while traders continued waiting for new trade deals from the Trump administration. As of now, only one deal has been signed—with the UK—which is not enough to justify a confident or sustained bearish run.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair remains below the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1213, keeping the door open for a further decline toward the next retracement at 76.4% — 1.0969. A rebound from 1.1213 could revive support for the dollar, while a close above it would favor the euro and the return of a bullish trend toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1495. A bearish divergence in the CCI indicator increases the likelihood of renewed price declines.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

Over the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 2,196 long positions and 2,118 short positions. The sentiment among non-commercial traders remains bullish—thanks in part to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 194,000, compared to 118,000 short positions. Just a few months ago, the situation was reversed.

Large investors had been shedding euro positions for 20 weeks, but they've now been increasing long positions and reducing shorts for 13 consecutive weeks. While the policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed continues to favor the U.S. dollar, Trump's political influence remains a major wildcard, as his actions could trigger a recession in the U.S.

Economic Calendar – May 16:

U.S.:

  • Building Permits (12:30 UTC)
  • Housing Starts (12:30 UTC)
  • University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

Friday's economic calendar contains several entries, but none are considered major. Overall, the fundamental backdrop is expected to exert limited influence on market sentiment.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair is advisable today upon a close below 1.1181 on the hourly chart, with a target at the 1.1074–1.1081 zone. Alternatively, another rebound from the 1.1213 level on the H4 could also trigger a sell opportunity. As of now, I do not see any clear patterns that would support buying.

Fibonacci Grids:

  • Hourly: built from 1.1265 to 1.1574
  • 4-hour: built from 1.1214 to 1.0179
Samir Klishi,
InstaForex के विश्लेषणात्मक विशेषज्ञ
© 2007-2025
समय सीमा चुनें
5
मिनट
15
मिनट
30
मिनट
1
घंटा
4
घंटे
1
दिन
1
सप्ताह
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    कॉन्टेस्ट में हिस्सा लें

अनुशंसित लेख

नास्डैक 100 सूचकांक के इंट्राडे मूल्य आंदोलन का तकनीकी विश्लेषण, गुरुवार 12 जून, 2025।

नास्डैक 100 सूचकांक के 4-घंटे के चार्ट पर, इसकी कीमत की चाल और स्टोकेस्टिक ऑस्सीलेटर संकेतक के बीच विसंगति है, खासकर तब जब वर्तमान में #NDX की कीमत EMA (21)

Arief Makmur 14:03 2025-06-12 UTC+2

क्रूड ऑयल कमोडिटी इंस्ट्रूमेंट की दैनिक मूल्य चाल का तकनीकी विश्लेषण, गुरुवार 12 जून, 2025।

अगर हम क्रूड ऑयल कमोडिटी इंस्ट्रूमेंट के दैनिक चार्ट को देखें, तो #CL की मूल्य चाल और स्टोकास्टिक ऑस्सीलेटर इंडिकेटर के बीच एक विचलन दिखाई देता है, जो इस बात

Arief Makmur 13:57 2025-06-12 UTC+2

गोल्ड (XAU/USD) के लिए 11-14 जून 2025 के ट्रेडिंग सिग्नल: $3,340 (21 SMA - 7/8 मरे) के नीचे बेचें।

अगर सोना डाउनट्रेंड चैनल को तोड़कर 3,340 के ऊपर स्थिर होता है, तो इसका परिदृश्य बुलिश हो सकता है। इस स्थिति में धातु 3,359, 3,390 और यहां तक कि मरे

Dimitrios Zappas 08:09 2025-06-11 UTC+2

BITCOIN (BTC/USD) के लिए 11 से 13 जून तक ट्रेडिंग सिग्नल: $110,700 (21 SMA - 200 EMA) के नीचे बेचें।

बिटकॉइन वर्तमान में लगभग 110,726 के आसपास ट्रेड कर रहा है, और मई के अंत में देखे गए स्तर 110,726 तक पहुंचने के बाद तकनीकी सुधार की प्रक्रिया में है।

Dimitrios Zappas 08:03 2025-06-11 UTC+2

GBP/JPY क्रॉस करेंसी पेयर्स के इंट्राडे प्राइस मूवमेंट का तकनीकी विश्लेषण, मंगलवार 10 जून, 2025।

GBP/JPY क्रॉस करेंसी पेयर के 4-घंटे के चार्ट पर कई दिलचस्प बातें देखी जा सकती हैं। पहली बात यह है कि प्राइस मूवमेंट WMA (21) के ऊपर चल रहा है

Arief Makmur 07:57 2025-06-10 UTC+2

EUR/USD मुख्य मुद्रा जोड़ी की इंट्राडे कीमत गति का तकनीकी विश्लेषण, मंगलवार 10 जून 2025।

Ascending Broadening Wedge पैटर्न के प्रकट होने के बाद Bearish 123 पैटर्न के दिखने से यह संकेत मिलता है कि निकट भविष्य में EUR/USD कमजोर हो सकता है, खासकर

Arief Makmur 07:55 2025-06-10 UTC+2

EUR/USD पूर्वानुमान – 9 जून, 2025 के लिए

मध्यम रूप से आशावादी अमेरिकी रोज़गार डेटा ने डॉलर को पुनर्जीवित किया, जिससे इसमें 0.44% की बढ़त हुई। यूरो 50 पिप्स गिर गया। स्टॉक मार्केट के साथ एक विचलन (डाइवर्जेंस)

Laurie Bailey 12:09 2025-06-09 UTC+2

USD/JPY का पूर्वानुमान, 9 जून 2025

पिछले येन विश्लेषण में हमने उल्लेख किया था कि 145.08 स्तर मुख्य लक्ष्य 146.11 के लिए एक मध्यवर्ती बाधा के रूप में काम करता है। हालांकि, आज सुबह तक, बुल्स

Laurie Bailey 07:36 2025-06-09 UTC+2

GBP/USD की भविष्यवाणी — 9 जून, 2025

शुक्रवार को, जब अमेरिकी डॉलर सूचकांक 0.44% मजबूत हुआ, तो ब्रिटिश पाउंड 42 पिप्स गिर गया। हालांकि, मार्लिन ऑस्सीलेटर स्थिर बना हुआ है, जो नीचे से शून्य रेखा द्वारा समर्थित

Laurie Bailey 07:34 2025-06-09 UTC+2

6 जून, 2025 के लिए EUR/USD का पूर्वानुमान

कल, उम्मीद के मुताबिक, यूरोपीय सेंट्रल बैंक (ECB) ने मुख्य ब्याज दरों में चौथाई अंक की कटौती की, जिससे रीफाइनेंसिंग रेट 2.15% हो गया। प्रेस कॉन्फ्रेंस में, ECB की अध्यक्ष

Laurie Bailey 12:04 2025-06-06 UTC+2
अभी बात नहीं कर सकते?
अपना प्रश्न पूछें बातचीत.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.