The situation in the cryptocurrency market has remained unchanged for a month and a half. On the daily timeframe, it is still a sluggish and weak upward correction, while on the 4-hour timeframe, it is a persistent flat with a minimal upward bias. Currently, it is an extremely unattractive time for trading, as there is neither a pure flat nor a definitive trend. The President of the United States stated on Monday that negotiations with Iran were progressing successfully, resulting in a five-day delay of the ultimatum to strike Iranian energy assets. Yesterday, Trump postponed the decision to strike by another 10 days until April 6. Initially, Bitcoin saw a slight surge in optimism, but this time there was no reaction. Traders can still expect a weak rise that borders on the concept of "flat." Most patterns on the 4-hour timeframe are being ignored, further characterizing the current movement as unattractive. The daily timeframe shows no new patterns, and Bitcoin has not reacted to the ones already present on the chart.
If the war in the Middle East ends, it might support "digital gold" temporarily, but not for long and likely not significantly. In our view, the market is preparing for a new decline that will be much lower than the trend line on the daily timeframe. The $57,500 target has not been met, and we still see no signs of a trend reversal. As often happens, a new market crash may begin almost out of nowhere or in response to a formal event. Therefore, it is crucial to use stop losses on all positions.
One thing can be stated with confidence: the current movement is a correction, and Bitcoin still has fairly obvious targets below, while investors are reluctant to buy "digital gold," despite the appeal of current prices and assurances from Michael Saylor, Robert Kiyosaki, and Cathie Wood about Bitcoin reaching a million dollars and beyond. In our opinion, the downward trend is not over, and it is too short-term to expect a new "bullish" trend to begin right now.
General Picture of BTC/USD on 1D
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend. The trend structure is identified as descending, and the CHOCH line is currently at the level of $97,900. Only above this level can we consider the downward trend to have ended. Recall that the last sell signal was formed within the "bearish" FVG ($96,900 – $98,000). Thus, traders had a great opportunity to capture nearly all of the recent downward movement. The relevant target for this decline remains at $57,500, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Since there are no signs of a trend reversal towards an upward direction, we believe the decline will continue. On the daily timeframe, the nearest POI area for new sell trades is in the range of $79,500 – $81,100.
General Picture of BTC/USD on 4H
On the 4-hour timeframe, the price has completed a 5-week flat movement but has now returned to that flat area. The CHOCH line, which provides support for the upward correction, is at $65,500. Breaking this line will indicate the completion of the correction that has lasted for a month and a half. The flat cannot be considered relevant at this time, and the short-term upward trend cannot be seen as complete; the bearish sentiment in the market persists. The last bearish FVG was canceled after Trump's speech, and the IFVG that formed on its base also failed to yield a significant reaction. The FVG near the upper boundary of the former sideways channel has not been reacted to either. There is no point in considering new patterns within the flat channel.
Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:
Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend. We continue to expect a decline, targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year upward trend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. However, even the $57,500 level no longer looks like a final stop. Among the POI areas, the nearest bearish FVG on the daily timeframe is located considerably far from the price. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin's movement once again shows all the signs of being flat. An obvious target remains below the trend line on the daily timeframe, indicating a liquidity pool.
Explanations of the Illustrations:
CHOCH – Change of Character in the trend structure.
Liquidity – The liquidity related to stop-loss orders from traders that market makers use to build their positions.
FVG – Fair Value Gap, an area of price inefficiency. Price passes through such areas very quickly, indicating a complete lack of one side of the market. Subsequently, price tends to return and react to such areas.
IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not receive a reaction from it; it impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position, aiming to capture liquidity to form its own position in the opposite direction.
