On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair rose on Wednesday to the resistance level of 1.3437–1.3465, rebounded from it, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began declining toward the support level of 1.3341–1.3352. A consolidation below this zone would increase the likelihood of a further decline toward the next support level at 1.3177–1.3199. A consolidation above 1.3437–1.3465 would allow traders to expect continued growth toward the resistance level of 1.3526–1.3539.

The wave situation has shifted back to "bullish." The latest upward wave broke the previous high, while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics had given bears almost complete dominance in the market for two months, but now the geopolitical backdrop has begun to improve, immediately boosting bullish confidence. The hourly chart also shows that in recent weeks the pair has been trading sideways between 1.3177 and 1.3465.

The news background on Wednesday favored the bulls, but only briefly. We saw a rapid bullish advance immediately after statements by Donald Trump about reaching a two-week ceasefire with Iran and the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz. However, already by Wednesday afternoon, Israel began attacking Lebanon, while Iran targeted Bahrain and Kuwait. Thus, even if a ceasefire was reached, it is now hanging by a thread, and far from all parties to the conflict are participating in it. In my view, Trump's ceasefire mainly reflects his own desire to end U.S. involvement in the conflict. Whether peace will actually be established in the Middle East is of less concern to the U.S. leader. Overnight, Trump again began threatening Iran, as he believes Tehran is violating the ceasefire terms. Tehran, in turn, believes the United States is violating the agreement. Amid a large volume of geopolitical news, the market will likely once again ignore economic data. Today, the U.S. will release its fourth-quarter GDP report.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above a descending trend channel, which has so far given bulls no real advantage. The pound's quotes rose to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3439, but this level has already produced two rebounds in the past. Geopolitics has begun to improve, but bulls now need to break above 1.3439 to expect a trend. A consolidation above this level would increase the probability of further growth toward 1.3540 and 1.3664. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bearish over the past reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 4,845, while short positions decreased by 912. The gap between long and short positions now stands at roughly 51,000 versus 104,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders actively increased selling and reduced buying, leading to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which raises no questions given the geopolitical situation. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, we first saw a correction while maintaining a bullish trend, and then the Middle East conflict began escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the only driver of the U.S. dollar's strength.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• U.S. – Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – GDP (Q4) change (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Initial jobless claims (12:30 UTC)

On April 9, the economic calendar includes three entries, with U.S. GDP being the most notable. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday may be weak. Traders remain focused primarily on geopolitics.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3465 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3341–1.3352. These trades can still be held open today. Buying opportunities may arise after a rebound from 1.3341–1.3352 with a target of 1.3437–1.3465, or upon a close above 1.3437–1.3465 with a target of 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3341 to 1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012 to 1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.