empty
13.12.2024 01:34 PM
GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on December 13th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.2637 level and planned trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart to analyze what happened. A decline followed by the formation of a false breakout around 1.2637 provided an excellent entry point for buying the pound, but the pair failed to show any significant growth.

This image is no longer relevant

To Open Long Positions on GBP/USD:

News that the UK's GDP contracted last month, rather than growing as expected, triggered an active decline in the British pound, continuing yesterday's downward trend. In the second half of the day, market direction is unlikely to change significantly due to the absence of major statistics. Against this backdrop, I anticipate sustained pressure on the pair.

If GBP/USD declines, only a defense of the 1.2619 support level will offer a chance for recovery. A false breakout at this level will provide a good entry point for buying, targeting a return to the 1.2653 resistance, formed in the first half of the day. A break and retest of this range from above will open the way to new long positions, aiming for 1.2686, where buyers encountered difficulties earlier today. The ultimate target will be the 1.2717 area, where I will lock in profits.

If GBP/USD declines further and there's no bullish activity near 1.2619, buyers will lose momentum entirely. In this case, only a false breakout around the next support level at 1.2591 will offer an opportunity to open long positions. I will buy directly on a rebound only from the 1.2567 minimum, targeting an intraday correction of 30–35 points.

To Open Short Positions on GBP/USD:

If the pound continues its upward correction, protecting the 1.2653 resistance will be a priority for sellers. A false breakout at this level will provide a good entry point for short positions, targeting the 1.2619 support, which is a new weekly low. A break and retest of this range from below will lead to further selling, opening the way to 1.2591, which would significantly undermine the bulls' positions. The ultimate target will be the 1.2567 area, where I will lock in profits.

If demand for the pound returns in the second half of the day and GBP/USD rises without bearish activity at 1.2653, buyers will gain a good chance for end-of-week growth. Bears will have no choice but to retreat to the 1.2686 resistance, where moving averages favor sellers. I will sell there only after a false breakout. If no downward movement occurs, I will look for short positions on a rebound near 1.2717, targeting an intraday correction of 30–35 points.

This image is no longer relevant

Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:

The December 3 COT report showed a reduction in long positions and an increase in short positions. How the Bank of England proceeds with interest rates remains uncertain. However, in the event of further weak GDP data expected soon, the prospect of rate cuts will come back into focus, exerting pressure on the British pound against the U.S. dollar. If this does not occur, buyers will have a chance for a larger GBP/USD rally.

The latest COT report indicates that non-commercial long positions decreased by 403 to 98,056, while non-commercial short positions increased by 1,905 to 78,730. The net difference between long and short positions narrowed by 947.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

Trading is conducted below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating continued downward pressure on the pair.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are analyzed on the H1 hourly chart and differ from the general definition of moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands:

In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.2619 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average (MA): Smooths market volatility and noise, identifying the current trend. Periods: 50 (yellow on the chart) and 30 (green on the chart).
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA: Period 12, Slow EMA: Period 26, SMA: Period 9.
  • Bollinger Bands: Period 20.
  • Non-commercial traders: Speculators like individual traders, hedge funds, and institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes.
  • Non-commercial long positions: Total long open positions of non-commercial traders.
  • Non-commercial short positions: Total short open positions of non-commercial traders.
  • Net non-commercial position: The difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on July 22? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Monday, the GBP/USD pair exhibited movements nearly identical to those of the EUR/USD pair. This suggests that the US dollar

Paolo Greco 06:39 2025-07-22 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on July 22? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair is likely to have completed a three-week downward trend. As a reminder, over the past

Paolo Greco 06:39 2025-07-22 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for GBP/USD on July 22: The Pound Begins to Reverse the Trend

The GBP/USD currency pair also maintained an upward trajectory throughout Monday. The reasons were identical to those for EUR/USD. The dollar had been rising for three weeks on pure trader

Paolo Greco 03:45 2025-07-22 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Trade Breakdown for EUR/USD on July 22: The Dollar's Fairytale Is Over

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement, which began last week. There were no local macroeconomic reasons for the euro's rise, but there were plenty of fundamental

Paolo Greco 03:45 2025-07-22 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the European Session on July 21. Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports (Analysis of Yesterday's Trades). Pound Attempted to Recover

Last Friday, only one entry point into the market was formed. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.3442 level

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:12 2025-07-21 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the European Session on July 21. Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports (Analysis of Yesterday's Trades). Euro Correction Is Nearing Its End

Only one market entry point was formed last Friday. Let's look at the 5-minute chart to see what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1654 level

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:11 2025-07-21 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on July 21? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Friday, but this movement had little meaningful impact. The downtrend in the British pound remains

Paolo Greco 04:01 2025-07-21 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on July 21? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement after rebounding twice from the 1.1563 level

Paolo Greco 04:01 2025-07-21 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on July 18? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair also traded with minimal volatility. Strangely enough, there was quite a lot of interesting data released yesterday

Paolo Greco 06:13 2025-07-18 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on July 18? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Thursday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded in a near-flat range with very low volatility (around 50 pips). After the storm

Paolo Greco 06:13 2025-07-18 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.