Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro
The price test at 1.1441 occurred just as the MACD indicator began moving upward from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro and resulting in a rise of more than 40 pips.
After the release of U.S. inflation data, the U.S. dollar weakened, and the euro received strong support. Market participants interpreted the data as a possible sign that the Federal Reserve may abandon its wait-and-see approach and high interest rates, as it became clear that Donald Trump's trade policies had not impacted prices as severely as many had feared.
The euro's further growth is justified, as no significant reports that could pressure the pair are scheduled for the first half of the day. However, traders will closely monitor European Central Bank's Isabel Schnabel's speech. Her statements, especially concerning future monetary policy, could significantly impact the euro's rate. If she confirms a pause in interest rate cuts, this may support the upward trend established yesterday and strengthen the euro's position against the dollar. Still, the main focus will shift to the second half of the day, when U.S. PPI data will be released.
Investors are hoping for confirmation of slowing inflation. If this hope materializes, the dollar could weaken further, losing its appeal. On the other hand, an unexpected CPI spike above expectations would strengthen the dollar, fueling speculation of a more aggressive Fed stance.
For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.
Buy Scenario
Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at around 1.1534 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1573. At 1.1573, I plan to exit the market and initiate a sell position in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 pip pullback. Buying the euro is reasonable within the current uptrend.
Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1507 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside potential and prompt a reversal upward. In this case, I expect growth to resistance levels of 1.1534 and 1.1573.
Sell Scenario
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1507 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1464, where I intend to exit the market and buy back in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20–25 pip pullback. If there are no buyers close to the daily highs, pressure on the pair will likely return.
Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to descend from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1534 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. In this case, I expect a decline toward the support levels of 1.1507 and 1.1464.
What's on the Chart:
- The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
- The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
- The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
- The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
- The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.
Important Notes:
- Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
- Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.
