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04.07.2025 07:59 AM
What to Pay Attention to on July 4? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

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No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday. As previously mentioned, today is a public holiday in the United States, known as Independence Day. All banks and stock exchanges will be closed, and there will be no trading activity. Europe remains open, but the calendar contains no scheduled releases. Volatility in the currency market will likely be extremely low today.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

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As for fundamental events on Friday, the only noteworthy item is a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who has already spoken five or six times over the past two weeks. The only insight that could be drawn from her remarks is the ECB's concern about rising inflation due to complete uncertainty in future trade relations with the United States. Therefore, it can be assumed that the ECB's monetary policy will remain unchanged at upcoming meetings, which currently has no meaningful impact on the euro.

The market continues to prioritize the trade war, which shows no signs of ending or resolution. In the near future, the situation could escalate to the limit, as Donald Trump, just five days before the end of the "grace period", has signed only 3 out of 75 deals. Moreover, the market fails to understand what there is to be optimistic about, considering that all tariffs introduced by Trump remain in effect. The situation with China is even more unclear, as there have been announcements about a deal, but no information has been released about what the deal entails or its scope.

Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade sluggishly, since there are no significant events or releases scheduled, and U.S. markets are closed. Due to Independence Day, the labor market and unemployment reports were released on Thursday instead of Friday.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

  1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
  2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
  5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
  6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
  7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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