The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has remained unchanged for several months. The upward trend segment continues to form, while the news background continues to support all currencies except the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump was intended to boost budget revenues and eliminate the trade deficit. However, these targets have yet to be achieved—trade agreements are being signed with difficulty, and Trump's "One Big Law" will increase the U.S. national debt by 3 trillion dollars in the coming years. The market rates Trump's performance over the first six months very poorly and views his actions as a threat to U.S. stability and economic well-being.

At this stage, wave 3 appears to still be in progress and could extend significantly further. However, its internal structure has taken on a five-wave form and may therefore be complete. If this assumption is correct, upward movement is likely to continue in the coming months, but in the short term, we may see the formation of a corrective set of waves—or possibly just a single wave, which is not uncommon in a strong uptrend.

The EUR/USD pair declined slightly on Tuesday, but this has no impact on the wave structure. On any chart scale, one thing is clear—the dollar continues to weaken. As previously mentioned, the only short-term opportunity for the dollar to strengthen lies in a corrective wave structure, which may still be in progress. Recall that a correction can consist of three or even five waves. A five-wave correction typically requires a strong news background. In simple terms, the market needs a clear reason to build such a complex structure. In the absence of relevant news, three waves are usually enough. If the news favors the counter currency, the market may even form a single corrective wave, as was the case from April 3 to April 8.

At the moment, I see no other reasons to buy the dollar. Even though today Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan (which we'll touch on later), it is unlikely to offer much support. Tomorrow, the European Central Bank will hold a policy meeting—what kind of support could the dollar expect from that? For an entire year, the ECB has been cutting interest rates, but in 2025, monetary easing in the euro area no longer affects the euro. This year, the Fed has not cut rates even once, and there is no clarity on when it will resume monetary easing—certainly not anytime soon. In this environment, the market continues to favor the euro and sell the dollar. Therefore, even if the ECB leaves rates unchanged tomorrow (which has a 95% probability), it will not help the dollar. As we can see, the trade deal with Japan also failed to provide meaningful support for dollar buyers.

General Conclusions

Based on the current EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair is still in the process of forming an upward trend segment. The wave pattern remains entirely dependent on the news background related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy, with no positive developments in sight. The trend segment targets could extend as far as the 1.2500 level. Therefore, I continue to consider buy positions with targets around the 1.1875 level, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level, and possibly higher. The failed attempt to break through the 1.1572 level, which corresponds to the 100.0% Fibonacci level, indicates the market's readiness to resume purchases.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are hard to trade and often lead to revisions.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty about price direction is impossible. Always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.