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16.02.2023 09:01 AM
Analysis and trading tips for EUR/USD on February 16
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Analysis of transactions and tips for trading EUR/USD

The test of 1.0711 occurred when the MACD line was already far from zero, so the downside potential was limited. Sometime later, there was another test, but this time MACD was already recovering from the oversold area, which was a pretty good signal to buy. It resulted in a price increase of about 20 pips. The test of 1.0667 in the afternoon allowed traders to buy and led to another 20-pip rise.

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Changes in industrial production and the eurozone's trade balance had no impact on EUR/USD's direction, nor did a speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde. However, strong US retail sales data for January prompted dollar demand to surge, causing the pair to fall in the afternoon.

A trade balance report from Italy and an ECB economic update are scheduled for today, followed by speeches from ECB Board members Fabio Panetta and Joachim Nagel. The latter may help euro rise, but only if they confirm the bank's hawkish stance on rates. In the afternoon, the US will release data on building permits and new foundations, which are part of the most important sectors of the economy. Meanwhile, the weekly jobless claims, producer price index and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index are unlikely to affect the market; however, in case the data turns out to be better than expected, another strengthening in dollar and fall in euro will be seen.

For long positions:

Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.0716 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0763. Growth will occur if there are hawkish comments from ECB representatives. However, make sure that when buying, the MACD line is above zero or is starting to rise from it. Euro can also be bought at 1.0686, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0716 and 1.0763.

For short positions:

Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.0686 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.0630. Pressure will return if data on the Euro area disappoints and if the Fed's statements remain hawkish. However, make sure that when selling, the MACD line is below zero or is starting to move down from it. Euro can also be sold at 1.0716, but the MACD line should be in the overbought area as only by that will the market reverse to 1.0686 and 1.0630.

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What's on the chart:

The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.

The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.

The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.

MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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