On Wednesday, the euro once again moved into the target range of 1.1385–1.1420. However, recent price behavior suggests that the 1.1385 level is now redundant — we're seeing a consolidation range between 1.1276 and 1.1420. Within this range, the euro will await the results of today's ECB meeting. Economists expect a rate cut from 2.65% to 2.40%. In recent days, market participants have raised their dovish expectations, even allowing for a deeper cut to 2.15% (-0.50%) or slightly higher — to around 2.25–2.30%.

Overall, we anticipate a break below support at 1.1276 and a move toward the 1.1110/50 range. A break through that zone would open the path to the target level of 1.0955 — the March 18 high. The Marlin oscillator has already moved into negative territory and is poised to drag the price down with it.

On the H4 chart, the price has once again settled below the lower boundary of the 1.1385 range. Support at 1.1276 is now exposed. Following the ECB decision, the MACD line (1.1230) may also be broken.

An alternative scenario is possible only if the price consolidates above the 1.1535 level