विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 15.12.2022

15.12.2022 08:04 AM

GBP/USD: Breaking forecast on December 15, 2022

The US Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points, as expected. In fact, markets have long priced this rate hike. However, judging by the way GBP/USD reacted, it might seem that nothing significant actually happened in the course of the meeting, which is untrue. Unexpectedly, the regulator reviewed its September growth forecast although it had been expected that the Fed would announce some changes the following year. Thus, the outlook for interest rates was upwardly revised, with the terminal rate up to 5.1% from 4.6%. In other words, by the end of 2023, the interest rate is now seen at 5,00% to 5,25%, which means no reductions until 2024. Meanwhile, the tightening cycle had been widely expected to end in mid-2023, with the first reductions beginning in the fall.

United States Interest Rate:

Interestingly, the greenback's rally did not follow. Indeed, traders are now awaiting the Bank of England's decision, which is due today. The market has already priced the rate rise to 3.5% from 3.0%. However, the pound's bull run that began in late September was largely driven by expectations that the BoE's interest rates might get significantly higher than the Fed's the following year. The fact that the Fed revised the forecast changes the situation slightly. If the Bank of England decides not to raise interest rates next year, keeping them at their current levels for a while, the greenback will begin to strengthen.

United Kingdom Interest Rate:

Yesterday, GBP/USD traded near the upper limit of the ascending corridor with an increase in buying volumes. Apart from consolidation in the range, the situation in the market hasn't changed much.

The RSI is moving between line 50 and line 70 on the 4-hour chart, indicating a strong bullish bias.

The Alligator's MAs are headed up on the 4-hour and daily charts, reflecting an increase in bullish sentiment intraday and in the medium term.

Outlook

The pair's current sideways movement near the upper limit of the ascending corridor may indicate the beginning of the accumulation stage. Therefore, the limits of the sideways range – 1.2340 and 1.2450 – may become signal levels where it would be wiser to trade using the breakout strategy.

Speaking of complex indicator analysis, there are mixed signals for intraday and short-term trading and a buy signal for medium-term trading.

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