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01.02.2022 10:10 AM
Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on Feb 1, 2022
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A local correction in the market is getting ready for a long time, but market participants needed at least some reason to implement it. Such an event was the preliminary estimate of the euro area's GDP in the fourth quarter, which turned out to be significantly better than forecasts. It can be recalled here that the pace of economic growth was expected to slow down from 3.9% to 2.8% on Friday morning. But before the opening of the US trading session, they were revised in the direction of accelerating economic growth to 4.2%. In fact, the first GDP estimate showed an acceleration to 4.6%, which exceeded all the sharp expectations. This was the reason for the growth of the euro, which in turn, pulled the pound with it.

GDP change (Europe):

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The UK's lending market data will be published today, expectations for which cause skepticism about the prospects of the British currency. Here, the volume of consumer lending should amount to only 4.6 billion pounds against 4.9 billion pounds in the previous month. The situation is similar with mortgage lending, whose volume amounted to 3.7 billion pounds last month, and now, it is expected to reach 3.6 billion pounds. 65 thousand mortgage loans can be approved, whereas there were 67 thousand of them a month earlier. In other words, we are talking about a reduction in the lending market, which indicates a high probability of compression of consumer activity. This will put pressure on the pound, so only a miracle can help it. For example, good labor market data in Europe will allow the euro to further rise and pull the pound with it. However, this is unlikely.

Net consumer lending (UK):

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Eurozone's labor market data will be published, and, judging by the forecasts, they will not be able to affect anything at all. After all, the unemployment rate should remain unchanged. However, there is a small chance that the unemployment rate will decline from 7.2% to 7.1%. If this happens, the euro will be able to grow a little more, thereby continuing the local correction.

Unemployment rate (Europe):

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It seems that the US statistics will not be able to change anything either. From a formal point of view, not the best statistics are expected in the United States. The number of open vacancies should be reduced by 42 thousand, which is a negative factor. However, the scale of the changes is purely symbolic. There were 10,562 thousand of them last month, which should be 10,520 thousand. Moreover, the situation on the labor market continues to improve, and so, the reduction in the number of open vacancies looks completely logical. This reflects an increase in employment. In any case, the change itself is extremely minor and will have little effect on anything.

Number of open vacancies (United States):

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The EUR/USD pair returned to the area of the lower border of the previously broken flat during the correction. It can be assumed that the correction phase will end soon, which will lead to a reduction in the volume of long positions and the continuation of the medium-term downward trend.

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The GBP/USD pair found a variable pivot point in the area of 1.3350, where there was stagnation at first, and then a pullback of about 100 points. Despite local price changes, there is still a gradual process of restoring downward interest in the market. Thus, the pullback is considered a secondary task, which will be completed very soon.

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Mark Bom,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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