Forex Analysis & Reviews: 24.10.2022 - Fed officials are starting...

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24.10.2022 04:17 PM

Fed officials are starting to worry about the economy

The US bond market continued to grow gradually, and yields declined amid the strengthening of risky assets and the US stock market. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has retreated from a 14-year high today, now around 4.17%. At some point on Friday, the yield exceeded 4.33%. Rumors have spread in the market that some Federal Reserve officials are increasingly worried about excessive interest rate hikes. If this is the case, which is not surprising, yields will continue to fall, and the stock market will continue to gain strength. However, all this may turn out to be just rumors, and any refutations will quickly "land" buyers of risky assets hoping to grab the cheap market by the tail.

The reporting season for the third quarter is heating up and may cause many problems for traders this week. At the end of last week, the main indices showed the largest weekly gain since June, while the Dow Jones index rose by 4.9%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 4.7% and 5.2%, respectively.

Premarket

Tesla shares fell 2.5% in the premarket after a 9% drop in prices for the Model 3 and Model Y in China. The decline in prices occurred amid signs of weakening demand in China. Chinese electric car manufacturers also feel pressure on their stocks: Nio – minus 10.4%, XPeng – minus 11.3%, and Li Auto – minus 10.3%.

Alibaba's securities fell by 12.3% in the premarket after releasing weaker-than-expected data on China's GDP. The Chinese e-commerce giant saw the price of its US ADRs fall below the 2014 IPO level of $68 per share. Remember that the shares of Chinese technology companies are under pressure again after President Xi was re-elected for a third term, which led to rumors about the ongoing suppression of the country's technology sector. Among the stocks traded in the US, JD.com fell by 15.9%, Baidu lost 12.7%, and Tencent Music sank by 11%.

Royal Philips shares fell 2.2% in premarket trading after reporting bigger-than-expected losses, with the Dutch medical equipment maker also saying it would cut 4,000 jobs or about 5% of its workforce. The company blamed the negative result on problems in the supply chains that were observed earlier and on a major recall of several devices.

Myovant's securities jumped 8.1% in the premarket after the drugmaker agreed to be bought by a subsidiary of majority shareholder Sumitomo Pharma for $27 per share. This price is 10% higher than Sumitomo's previous offer.

Medical equipment manufacturer Medtronic has announced plans to separate its patient monitoring division into a separate company. Medtronic gained 1% on the premarket.

As for the technical picture of the S&P500, after a small phase of decline at the opening, the bulls pulled themselves together and continued the growth observed last Friday. The main task for buyers now is to protect the support of $3,735. As long as trading is conducted above this level, we expect continued demand for risky assets. This will also create good prerequisites for further strengthening of the trading instrument and a breakout of $3,773. Only such a scenario will strengthen the hope for a further upward correction with an exit to the resistance of $3,801. The furthest target will be the area of $3,835. In the case of a downward movement, buyers are obliged to declare themselves in the area of $3,735 and $3,699. Only a breakdown of these ranges will quickly push the trading instrument to $3,661 and $3,621 and also open up the possibility of updating the support of $3,579 – a new annual minimum for the index.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.