empty
05.12.2022 06:59 AM
A clear conclusion with a clear lack of any prediction being fulfilled

It makes perfect sense to include Friday in trading textbooks. To understand how and when the market might change its direction of movement or when the movement might intensify, all traders carefully study the calendar of economic events. The core of the fundamental analysis is this. But occasionally, as they say, there are exceptions. Additionally, they took too much time this time. Remember that I have frequently questioned whether raising the euro and pound's exchange rates is necessary? The fifth e waves for both trading instruments took on an extended form and were supposed to be finished a long time ago. I have written and am currently writing about this exact subject.

Over the last two weeks, the market has had many opportunities to halt the rise in demand for the euro and the pound and create at least a corrective downward set of waves. However, the market has never seized this chance. Or decided not to. The fundamental analysis loses its meaning when the market chooses not to consider the news and trades in a single direction. Furthermore, because the market always trades in one direction, wave analysis is pointless because you can wait for specific waves to form but they never do. The drawback of waves is that they can take on almost any length. Even the current waves e have room to grow. As a result, I've been watching for a decline for the past two weeks, and during that time, the instruments have been rising.

This image is no longer relevant

The market had anticipated a reading of around 200 thousand for the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, but it came in at 263,000. The unemployment rate is 3.7% as of today. In November, wages increased by 0.6%, despite the market expecting a rise of just 0.3%. At the same time, the US dollar only briefly appreciated before falling back down. It is impossible to explain why both instruments increased on Friday night, given that the week ended at peak levels. Let me remind you once more that fundamental analysis (at least on Friday) should have led to a decline in both instruments, and wave analysis predicts the formation of a descending set of waves. But once more, neither waves nor fundamental analysis could predict the movement we saw. And all you can do is tolerate it. Now that the trend can become more complex on both ends, the waves e can as well, which will necessitate adjusting the wave markup. It's also unsettling to think about what will occur in December when all three central banks meet for the final time this year. The market's response should vary depending on the meetings attended, the decisions made, and the rhetoric used. But if you can only go in one direction, will the market still want to be so diverse? We'll likely experience several surprises in December.

I conclude that the upward trend section's construction is complete and has increased complexity to five waves. As a result, I suggest making sales with targets close to the estimated 0.9994 level, or 323.6% Fibonacci. The trend's upward portion could become more complicated and take on a longer form, and the likelihood of this happening is increasing daily.

This image is no longer relevant

The construction of a new downward trend segment is predicated on the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. Since the wave marking permits the current construction of a downward trend section, I cannot advise purchasing the instrument. With targets around the 1,1707 mark, or 161.8% Fibonacci, sales are now more accurate. The wave e, however, can evolve into an even longer form.

Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Alexander Dneprovskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Dollar Extends Its Advantage

Many traders yesterday awaited remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman. However, her speech, which focused on banks, AI, and cryptocurrencies, hardly had a serious impact on the currency market

Jakub Novak 11:19 2025-08-20 UTC+2

The Pound Rises on Inflation Data

According to the report, inflation in the United Kingdom increased for the second consecutive month in July, adding pressure on the Bank of England to reconsider the pace

Jakub Novak 10:58 2025-08-20 UTC+2

AUD/NZD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the AUD/NZD pair gained strength following the RBNZ's rate decision, pushing spot prices above the psychological level of 1.1000 and reaching their highest since early March. As expected

Irina Yanina 10:54 2025-08-20 UTC+2

The Market – A Lone Warrior

In a thin summer market, where trading volumes on the New York Stock Exchange have fallen to their lowest levels since early May, even a single company can drag

Marek Petkovich 10:13 2025-08-20 UTC+2

Tension in the Markets Is Rising. Investors Are Still Hoping for Fed Rate Cuts (there is a chance of renewed growth in #USDX and Ethereum)

The stock market rally in the U.S. stumbled on reduced expectations of a Fed rate cut at the September central bank meeting. Why is this happening, and will the central

Pati Gani 09:31 2025-08-20 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on August 20? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Only two macroeconomic releases are scheduled for Wednesday. The UK and the eurozone will publish consumer price indices for July. The European report is released in two estimates

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-08-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – August 20: Just a Pause. Period

The EUR/USD currency pair on Tuesday (as in recent days) traded in an ultra-calm manner. On Monday, it declined, on Tuesday, it grew slightly, but overall, recent moves have taken

Paolo Greco 03:38 2025-08-20 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – August 20: Technicals and Nothing but Technicals

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its sluggish downward movement. In principle, there is no point discussing anything other than the technical picture right now. This week, apart from

Paolo Greco 03:38 2025-08-20 UTC+2

Yen Remains in Range

Japan's real GDP grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (1.0% y/y) in the second quarter of 2025, exceeding Bloomberg's market forecast (+0.1% q/q, +0.4% y/y). This marked the fifth consecutive quarter

Kuvat Raharjo 00:58 2025-08-20 UTC+2

NZD/USD. RBNZ August Meeting: Preview

On Wednesday, August 20, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will conclude its latest meeting, where it may reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points—from 3.25% to 3.0%

Irina Manzenko 00:58 2025-08-20 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.