Forex Analysis & Reviews: 13.03.2023 - Hot forecast for EUR/USD on...

13.03.2023 09:29 AM

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 13/03/2023

All of the recent labor market data in the United States clearly indicated that the content of the Labor Department report would be very different from what had been predicted, and the only question was in which direction. Since all of this data showed different directions. This is exactly what happened. And everything went according to the negative scenario. The unemployment rate, which should have remained unchanged, increased from 3.4% to 3.6%. And so the dollar instantly began to lose its positions. And quite substantially at that. And it didn't matter that 311,000 new jobs were created outside of agriculture. Which is 101,000 more than it was forecasted. The very growth of the unemployment rate clearly points to the worsening situation on the labor market, the state of which bound the hands of the Federal Reserve, forcing it not only to raise interest rates, but even consider a 50 bps hike, despite the slowdown of inflation. In other words, the content of the United States Department of Labor report removes any questions about the extent of the upcoming refinancing rate hike, which will pass at the minimum bar. This is the main reason why the dollar weakened.

The unemployment rate (United States):

But the problems for the dollar seems to be just beginning, because on Friday night, Silicon Valley Bank announced bankruptcy, one of the second ten largest credit institutions in the United States. This is the biggest bankruptcy since 2008. Almost immediately thereafter, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York decided to close Signature Bank. According to the central bank's statements, the reason was systemic risks caused by massive deposit outflows. At this moment, events are developing in a typical way for a banking crisis - the bankruptcy of one bank entails a chain reaction, as the other banks that issued short interbank loans to the bankrupt credit organization face liquidity shortages and are not able both to return the funds already raised by them or provide credit resources to other financial institutions. If monetary authorities did not immediately intervene, other bankruptcies would follow. For this reason there is immediate talk of the need to turn on the printing press and provide immediate emergency aid to credit institutions. This is nothing but another iteration of quantitative easing, or trivial money emission. And a $1.1 trillion figure even came up. In addition, some media have already found the culprit in the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank - the Federal Reserve. They say that the increase in interest rates has severely shaken the stability of the financial system. It's very reminiscent of an attempt to put pressure on the central bank to start cutting interest rates. As a result, both the prospect of switching on the printing press and reduction of the refinancing rate will weigh on the dollar and facilitate its further weakening. And the situation is so serious that Joe Biden is speaking about it today, and much will depend on the words of the President of the United States.

The euro strengthened in value by about 100 points against the U.S. dollar last Friday. This was caused by a massive reduction of dollar positions due to the release of the U.S. labor market report. As a result, the quote reached the local highs of the week.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI was in the overbought zone during the bullish momentum, which indicates that long positions could "overheat" in the short term. The RSI is moving within the 70 zone, which is also consistent with an overbought signal.

On the four-hour and one-hour charts, the Alligator's MAs are pointing upwards, which points to the bullish momentum. However, on the daily chart, it is still on the bearish cycle from the beginning of February.

Outlook

In this situation, keeping the price above 1.0700 might push the euro to rise further, ignoring the sign that it is overbought in the short term. However, things could change if the euro falls below 1.0650.

The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the intraday and short-term periods, technical indicators are pointing to bullish sentiment due to the upward momentum.

You have already liked this post today

*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.