empty
02.04.2025 11:23 AM
Forecast for EUR/USD on April 2, 2025

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the support zone at 1.0781–1.0797 but failed to rise to the 200.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0857. On Wednesday morning, the pair returned to the 1.0781–1.0797 zone. A rebound from this zone could lead to a modest upward move, but trader activity has been low lately. A break and consolidation below this zone will increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.0734.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern on the hourly chart has shifted. The last completed upward wave only barely surpassed the previous high, while the most recent downward wave broke the previous low. This indicates a trend reversal to the bearish side. Although Donald Trump introduced new tariffs last week, causing bears to step back temporarily, it's likely that more tariffs will follow this week, potentially allowing bulls to mount a counterattack. However, the bulls are losing momentum day by day.

Tuesday's news failed to support either bulls or bears. The most important report in my view—inflation in the Eurozone—slowed to 2.2% y/y, while core inflation dropped to 2.4%. This gave bears a reason to continue pressing the euro, but the Eurozone unemployment rate fell to 6.1%, which is a positive sign for the euro. As a result, the euro avoided a sharp drop in the first half of the day.

In the U.S., the ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed, and the JOLTS job openings report was also worse than expected. Despite all of this, neither side was able to create meaningful momentum—yesterday was simply a day of disappointments.

Donald Trump has yet to make any announcements regarding new tariffs, leaving traders on edge. The 1.0781–1.0797 zone remains a key decision point for trading strategy.

This image is no longer relevant

The pair showed a slight rebound on the 4-hour chart, but I still expect a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and further decline toward the 50.0% retracement level at 1.0696 and the 38.2% level at 1.0575. A more aggressive drop in the euro is unlikely for now, but a 200-point decline would be well within reason. No divergence signals are currently forming on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

This image is no longer relevant

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 844 long positions and closed 5,256 short positions. Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group has returned to bullish—thanks to Donald Trump. Total long positions now stand at 190,000, while shorts are at 124,000.

For 20 consecutive weeks, large players had been reducing exposure to the euro, but for the past 7 weeks they've been cutting short positions and increasing longs. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed still favors the U.S. dollar due to a widening interest rate spread. However, Trump's trade policies are becoming a more significant market-moving factor, as they could have a dovish impact on the Fed's approach and even trigger a recession in the U.S. economy.

News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone

  • U.S. – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC)

The April 2 calendar includes only one notable event, and its impact may be limited to the second half of the day. However, I'll reiterate: Trump can announce new tariffs at any moment.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

  • Sell the pair on a rebound from the 1.0857 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0797 and 1.0734.
  • Sell also if the pair closes below the 1.0781–1.0797 zone.
  • Buy opportunities will emerge on a rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone, with a target of 1.0857.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.0529 to 1.0213 on the hourly chart, and from 1.1214 to 1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Grigory Sokolov
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD Forecast for July 23, 2025

The euro managed to expand its consolidation range (ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting) up to the daily MACD line. The 1.1692 level, relevant yesterday, is now void. If today's

Laurie Bailey 05:03 2025-07-23 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for July 23, 2025

Yesterday, the British pound added another 41 pips to its corrective rise from the 1.3369 support level seen on July 16. However, once again, the price failed to break above

Laurie Bailey 05:03 2025-07-23 UTC+2

USD/JPY Forecast for July 23, 2025

This morning, the price reached the support level of 146.29 and decisively reversed upward. Whether this determination will be enough to break through 148.66 remains to be seen—especially with

Laurie Bailey 04:56 2025-07-23 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

Early in the European session today, the USD/CAD pair attempted to halt its decline but was unsuccessful. It is currently trading around 1.3678. Bearish sentiment remains in place, as oscillators

Irina Yanina 19:49 2025-07-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD – July 22nd: 30% Tariffs for the European Union

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair resumed its upward movement after consolidating above the 1.1645 level, as I had previously warned. A rebound from the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1712 worked

Samir Klishi 11:42 2025-07-22 UTC+2

Forex forecast 22/07/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold, SP500 and Ethereum

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 11:26 2025-07-22 UTC+2

GBP/USD – July 22nd: The Pound Breaks the Bearish Trend

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair made a new reversal in favor of the pound on Monday and consolidated above the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.3470, leading

Samir Klishi 10:38 2025-07-22 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Indicator Analysis on July 22, 2025

On Monday, the pair moved upward but fell short of holding above the 21-period EMA at 1.3513 (thin black line), and closed the daily candle at 1.3489. Today, the pair

Stefan Doll 10:19 2025-07-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Indicator Analysis on July 22, 2025

On Monday, the pair moved downward and nearly reached the upper fractal at 1.1721 (daily candle from July 16, 2025), after which the price slightly retreated, closing the daily candle

Stefan Doll 10:12 2025-07-22 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for July 22-25, 2025: sell below 1.1718 (200 EMA - 8/8 Murray)

Early in the European session, the euro is trading around 1.1689, showing some recovery after reaching the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1.1540. The euro could struggle to continue

Dimitrios Zappas 06:41 2025-07-22 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.