empty
04.04.2025 07:29 AM
What to Pay Attention to on April 4? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

This image is no longer relevant

Only a few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but they may trigger a new storm. The market has not yet recovered from Wednesday evening's events when Trump imposed trade tariffs on all countries worldwide. As a result, the dollar's decline may very well continue today on this factor alone. However, in the second half of the day, the U.S. will release the NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment rate reports. It goes without saying how important these reports are—especially if the actual figures deviate from forecasts. At this point, the dollar can only hope for a correction. If the data is weaker than expected, the market will eagerly continue selling off the U.S. currency.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

This image is no longer relevant

There's no point in discussing anything other than Trump's trade tariffs. The dollar's decline may continue for several more days, and we recommend that traders pay attention to speeches from the leaders of major countries and alliances regarding retaliatory tariffs. Trump said that any response to his measures to "eliminate injustice" would be met harshly with new sanctions and tariffs. So, anyone who assumed that the tariffs introduced on Wednesday were final and their rates fixed is seriously mistaken. Lengthy and complex negotiations are about to begin with all the "sanctioned" countries that will not accept Trump's tariffs. Large players will now start implementing counter-tariffs. Today, we await a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who will undoubtedly comment on the updated trade policy.

General Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to rise, as Trump has once again done everything to push the dollar lower. This is likely far from the last shock to hit the markets in 2025. The global trade architecture is transforming, and many changes in trade flows are expected. Numerous companies and governments will seek new markets, reorient their strategies, and form trade alliances and agreements. This will lead to a significant redistribution of financial and trade flows. And in the currency market, we may see more than one storm ahead.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

  1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
  2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
  4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
  5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
  6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
  7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

RBA Turns Increasingly Dovish, Reducing Chances of AUD/USD Recovery

The RBA cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% on Wednesday, in line with market expectations. At the concluding press conference, the RBA Governor acknowledged that

Kuvat Raharjo 12:26 2025-05-22 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is retreating after reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks. This pullback lacks clear fundamental triggers and is likely to remain limited due to several supportive factors. Expectations

Irina Yanina 12:21 2025-05-22 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The NZD/USD pair is pulling back after reaching a weekly high around the 0.5965–0.5970 level and is currently trading near 0.5920, marking a new daily low. The release

Irina Yanina 12:18 2025-05-22 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair is encountering difficulties in its attempt to recover following an overnight rebound from the 1.3815–1.3810 level, indicating a continuation of the week-long downtrend. Oil prices are rebounding

Irina Yanina 12:12 2025-05-22 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Inflation, Road Tax, and the Outlook for a Northern Trend

The GBP/USD pair hit a new three-year high yesterday, reacting to a sharp spike in UK inflation. However, the significance of the inflation report should not be overstated

Irina Manzenko 11:58 2025-05-22 UTC+2

The Market Is Losing Buyers

If you harm your relationship with your neighbors, don't expect them to offer you help. Donald Trump's tariffs and subsequent coercive negotiations have diminished the willingness of other countries

Marek Petkovich 09:49 2025-05-22 UTC+2

Changes in the U.S. Tax System May Exert Localized Pressure on Market Demand (there is a likelihood of a decline in #SPX and gold prices)

The chaos and instability caused by Donald Trump, both in the U.S. and around the world, have become a regular occurrence. However, they still contribute to significant market volatility

Pati Gani 09:49 2025-05-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 22: A New Blow to the Dollar: "One Big Beautiful Bill Act"

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday. The U.S. dollar has been falling steadily for over a week—something that hasn't happened in over a month. However, every

Paolo Greco 08:10 2025-05-22 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 22: The Market Once Again Responds Clearly to Trump

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to move north on Wednesday, even though, at first glance, there appeared to be no apparent reason for it. Yes, the inflation report—the only release

Paolo Greco 08:09 2025-05-22 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 22? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are several important macroeconomic reports scheduled for release on Thursday. Business activity indexes for May's services and manufacturing sectors will be released in Germany, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom

Paolo Greco 06:31 2025-05-22 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.