empty
14.04.2025 09:45 AM
The Uncertainty Factor Will Pressure the Dollar and Support Demand for Safe-Haven Assets (There is a likelihood of further decline in USD/JPY and rising gold prices)

Global markets remain heavily influenced by Donald Trump's erratic behavior. In his attempt to pull the U.S. out of severe economic dependence on imports, Trump continues to juggle the topic of tariff duties. Market participants remain mainly unresponsive to key economic data— especially from the U.S. — remaining instead under the strong influence of the chaos generated by the American president. And yet, that data signals significant changes in the national economy.

On Friday, a report on U.S. consumer inflation showed a notable slowdown in headline and core values. If this trend continues, it could become a strong signal for the Federal Reserve to proceed with interest rate cuts this year. However, amid this wave of positivity, one key factor must be considered — the turbulence surrounding Trump's tariff decisions. He softened his stance under domestic pressure by issuing a resolution to delay massive tariff plans for most trading partners by 90 days, settling on a 10% rate.

But this isn't a solution to the problem. It still looms. And while many begin to believe that Trump may yield under immense pressure, that may not happen, considering the personality traits of the 47th president. Also worth noting is that the U.S.'s largest trading partner, China, didn't bend to Washington's will and responded symmetrically.

In this environment of persistent uncertainty surrounding the future of the trade war, investors are trying to react locally. The market responded positively to the 90-day pause and the U.S. Consumer Price Index drop on Friday. Global stock indices gained solidly, and prices rose in the commodity markets. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, as expected, fell below the critical psychological level of 100.00 on the ICE index — and this decline continues this morning. The cryptocurrency market has slowed its upward movement, as the key factor of global economic uncertainty remains the primary constraint.

What can be expected in the markets today?

The positive reaction in the stock markets will likely fade against the backdrop of lingering uncertainty over the consequences of the trade wars launched by Donald Trump. The cryptocurrency market is expected to consolidate within a sideways range, as will prices in the commodity markets. However, the dollar is expected to continue declining, as falling inflation now adds to the negative pressure from the tariff narrative — and if inflation continues to fall, the Fed may be prompted to cut interest rates.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Day Forecast:

USD/JPY

The pair remains under intense pressure amid the negativity surrounding the dollar. Most likely, after breaking below the 142.35 support level — which previously served as a target — the pair may fall first to 141.60 and then to 140.60. A potential entry point could be at 142.15.

GOLD

Gold prices resumed growth under the influence of uncertainty. However, a pullback toward 3166.40 is possible before the next upward movement due to local overbought conditions. The entry point could be around 3194.48, with a short-term target of 3272.50.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

What to Pay Attention to on May 29? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday. The macroeconomic event calendars for Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Eurozone are empty. Only the United States will release reports

Paolo Greco 06:58 2025-05-29 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 29: The Dollar Begins to Believe in Miracles

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair traded with a slight decline, but it's hard to believe in further strengthening the U.S. dollar under the current circumstances. On the one hand

Paolo Greco 03:32 2025-05-29 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 29: Laughable or Lamentable? Trump Promises a Deal Again

The EUR/USD currency pair did not perform as well for the dollar on Wednesday as it did during the previous two days. However, even Monday and Tuesday can hardly

Paolo Greco 03:32 2025-05-29 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Hawkish Rate Cut: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand Concludes Its May Meeting

As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% following its May meeting. This marks the sixth round of monetary

Irina Manzenko 00:31 2025-05-29 UTC+2

The Yen Saws Off the Branch Under the Dollar

When you begin dismantling a system, you risk cutting off the branch you are sitting on. For decades, the United States' main trading partners earned money by exporting goods

Marek Petkovich 00:30 2025-05-29 UTC+2

The Euro Is Rushing Things

After a rapid rally from February through April, EUR/USD entered a prolonged consolidation phase. For several weeks now, the major currency pair has remained locked within the 1.1100–1.1400 trading range

Marek Petkovich 18:43 2025-05-28 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair has been recovering for the third consecutive day from this year's lowest level, supported by renewed buying interest in the U.S. dollar. Yesterday's optimistic U.S. economic data

Irina Yanina 11:44 2025-05-28 UTC+2

DXY: U.S. Dollar Index Continues to Show Positive Momentum for the Second Day in a Row

On Wednesday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, rebounding from the monthly low reached earlier this week. The index rose

Irina Yanina 11:36 2025-05-28 UTC+2

Why Are Currencies Traded Against the Dollar Not Declining? (There Is a Chance EUR/USD May Resume Growth and USD/JPY May Fall)

We are truly living in an unusual time, where the classic principles of assessing market situations are being cast aside in favor of more pressing and, more importantly, unclear

Pati Gani 10:05 2025-05-28 UTC+2

Market Conditions Favor the Dollar

Yesterday, the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen against a number of risk assets—particularly gaining ground against the euro and the British pound. Strong U.S. economic data triggered significant movements

Jakub Novak 09:53 2025-05-28 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.