empty
17.04.2025 11:55 AM
EUR/USD: Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

regarding upcoming changes in monetary policy from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).

Anticipation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB—its sixth consecutive cut amid easing inflation and ongoing trade risks—may significantly impact the euro's exchange rate and overall market sentiment. According to Eurostat data released on Wednesday, annual inflation in the eurozone fell to 2.2% in March from 2.6% the previous month. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, dropped to 2.4%, a level last seen in January 2022.

The decline in inflation and the overall slowdown in the eurozone economy—exacerbated by high tariffs from the U.S.—provide a basis for a more dovish stance from the ECB. Investors and traders should closely monitor today's European economic releases and ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments, which may offer guidance on the central bank's next steps. It will be especially important to understand how the ECB plans to address current economic challenges and what forecasts it is ready to present.

On the other hand, the situation in the U.S. appears somewhat different. A 1.4% rise in retail sales in March points to continued strength in consumer spending, which may reduce pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. Jerome Powell's recent comments that the Fed is not inclined to ease policy in the near future further reinforce confidence in the U.S. economy—especially considering that inflationary pressures have stemmed primarily from President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies. Nevertheless, markets are still pricing in the possibility that the Fed may lower borrowing costs three times this year due to growing concerns about an economic slowdown driven by trade tensions.

Today's U.S. economic releases, including initial jobless claims and construction sector data, could provide insight for adjusting trading positions. These figures will influence market expectations for future actions by the Fed and ECB—setting the tone not only for the currency market but also for short-term trading strategies.

Thus, upcoming events and economic reports may have a significant impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate and help shape expectations for future monetary policy in both regions.

From a technical standpoint, since oscillators on the daily chart remain in overbought territory, the EUR/USD pair is currently susceptible to a correction.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Irina Yanina
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/JPY pair continues its upward movement, trading just below the psychological level of 199.00. The pair is gaining strength due to a weakening Japanese yen, which is under pressure

Irina Yanina 19:44 2025-07-22 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

On Tuesday, gold is pulling back from the round $3400 level, which acted as resistance. However, in the lead-up to the August 1 deadline for the introduction of new tariffs

Irina Yanina 12:08 2025-07-22 UTC+2

Trump Continues Seeking Ways to Pressure China Through Other Countries

According to media reports, President Donald Trump's ongoing efforts to pressure China via its supply chain trading partners threaten to undermine the country's growth and much of its exports

Jakub Novak 10:30 2025-07-22 UTC+2

The European Union Takes on China

While the euro is gradually recovering after a major sell-off observed for most of this month, recent data shows that the latest round of EU sanctions has targeted a number

Jakub Novak 10:24 2025-07-22 UTC+2

The Closer We Get to August 1, the More Tense Market Conditions Become (Potential Decline in #USDX and USD/JPY Pair)

As August 1 approaches—the date previously announced by Donald Trump for the imposition of tariffs against U.S. trading partners—market participants are becoming increasingly focused on this issue, exercising caution

Pati Gani 10:14 2025-07-22 UTC+2

Market braces for 'Zombie Liberation Day'

Despite the looming August 1 deadline, when the White House's sweeping import tariffs are set to take effect, the S&P 500 keeps hitting new record highs. Step by step

Marek Petkovich 09:10 2025-07-22 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 22? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday. Therefore, weak market movements can be expected throughout the day. Of course, Donald Trump may at any moment retake center stage with

Paolo Greco 07:20 2025-07-22 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 22: American-Style Business in All Its Glory

The GBP/USD currency pair also traded higher on Monday, despite the absence of any local drivers. Let us recall that no fundamental or macroeconomic event was scheduled on the first

Paolo Greco 03:45 2025-07-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 22: The Dollar Has No Prospects

The EUR/USD currency pair traded higher throughout Monday. The rise in quotes began early in the morning and persisted for most of the day. Despite the lack of fundamental

Paolo Greco 03:45 2025-07-22 UTC+2

Trump Raises the Stakes in the Fight with the EU

The new week had barely begun when the dollar faced fresh reasons for decline. Over the past two weeks, there have been plenty of such reasons, but the market persisted

Chin Zhao 00:43 2025-07-22 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.