Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1319 price level in the first half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, which confirmed a valid entry point for buying the euro and led to a 20-point rise in the pair.

In the second half of the day, selling pressure is likely, as significant U.S. economic data is scheduled for release. It will start with the weekly report on initial jobless claims and end with the ISM Manufacturing PMI for April. It's difficult to predict the market's exact reaction, but strong data could increase pressure on the euro and trigger a new wave of EUR/USD declines. Given the weak U.S. manufacturing data, a positive ISM report could help sellers restore the downward momentum seen since midweek.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the execution of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today upon reaching the 1.1341 price level (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 1.1380. At 1.1380, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry level. Euro growth can be expected in line with the trend and after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1305 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. Growth can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1341 and 1.1380.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1305 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1261, where I plan to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move from the level). Selling pressure may return today if there's no buyer activity near the daily high. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1341 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal to the downside. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1305 and 1.1261.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the assumed price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the assumed price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entries. It's best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news events, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan — like the one I presented above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.