empty
06.05.2025 11:05 AM
EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD pair is struggling to establish a clear short-term direction, trading within a multi-day range as markets await decisive news from the upcoming FOMC meeting regarding the interest rate.

Solid U.S. employment data released on Friday, along with a better-than-expected ISM Services PMI, helped ease some concerns about a potential recession. This has supported the U.S. dollar and limited its recent decline.

Dollar strength in response to positive economic data may put pressure on the EUR/USD pair, as a stronger dollar makes the euro less attractive to investors.

However, the rapidly changing trade policy of U.S. President Donald Trump is introducing additional economic uncertainty. This could encourage investors to adopt a more cautious, defensive stance, thereby potentially capping further dollar gains.

This image is no longer relevant

From a technical perspective, last week's break below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart—for the first time since early April—served as an important bearish signal, indicating a shift in market sentiment. Additionally, oscillators on the 4-hour chart have entered negative territory, confirming a bearish intraday bias, although they remain in bullish territory on the daily chart.

This underscores the need for stronger follow-through selling before committing to short positions. Currently, the 100-period SMA at 1.1375 on the 4-hour chart stands as the immediate resistance before the key round level at 1.1400. A sustained breakout above this level would allow EUR/USD to surpass the intermediate barrier at 1.1425 and aim for a return to the psychological 1.1500 mark. If bullish momentum continues, the pair could move toward the multi-year high at around 1.1575, last seen in April.

On the other hand, a drop below the round level of 1.1300 and the three-week low near 1.1265 would act as key support and a crucial pivot point. A break below this level would open the path for further downside toward the 1.1200 round level and potentially lower, targeting the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Fed Allows Only One Rate Cut in 2025

The Federal Reserve continues to remain silent this year. While the European Central Bank has already cut interest rates three times and the Bank of England twice, the FOMC

Chin Zhao 00:40 2025-05-20 UTC+2

AUD/USD. RBA May Meeting: Preview

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will conclude its meeting on Tuesday, May 20, which may result in a softening of monetary policy parameters. The "dovish" scenario is the most

Irina Manzenko 00:40 2025-05-20 UTC+2

The Dollar Has Sold America Out Completely

Overall, the strength of the EUR/USD uptrend remains intact. The erosion of confidence in the U.S. dollar outweighs the divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and the ECB. Technical

Marek Petkovich 00:40 2025-05-20 UTC+2

AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Spot prices for the AUD/USD pair remain within the familiar range held over the past month, as traders await a fresh catalyst before committing to the next directional move

Irina Yanina 18:22 2025-05-19 UTC+2

WTI – West Texas Intermediate. WTI Crude Holds Modest Intraday Losses

Today, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is holding modest intraday losses. Uncertainty surrounding the ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks, along with rising tensions between Estonia and Russia following Sunday's detention

Irina Yanina 18:16 2025-05-19 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

On Monday, the first trading day of the week, the USD/CAD pair attempted to gain significant upward momentum during the Asian session, but the European session failed to support this

Irina Yanina 18:03 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Bitcoin falls prey to crooks

Trust in the financial world is not exclusive to the US dollar. News that scammers have stolen data from approximately 197,000 clients of Coinbase — the world's largest crypto exchange

Marek Petkovich 13:20 2025-05-19 UTC+2

Are There Reasons for the Market Rally to Continue? (Possible Decline in AUD/USD and Growth in GBP/USD)

The coming week is expected to be light on major events or dramatic headlines—no new promises from Donald Trump to shake the world. Nevertheless, there will still be factors worth

Pati Gani 09:52 2025-05-19 UTC+2

The Market Has Gone Too Far

Nothing seems to matter. One would think that after the White House signed trade agreements with Britain and China, and following Donald Trump's visit to the Middle East, the S&P

Marek Petkovich 09:18 2025-05-19 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on May 19? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

On Monday, there are very few macroeconomic events scheduled. The only noteworthy release will be the second estimate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April in the Eurozone, which

Paolo Greco 07:34 2025-05-19 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.