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07.05.2025 09:28 AM
Is It Worth Hoping for a Strong Market Rally? (There is a high probability of continued growth in #SPX and #NDX)
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Equity markets have improved, demand for cryptocurrencies has risen, yet gold prices dropped sharply after a local rally. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has remained almost unchanged against major currencies in the Forex market.

Markets continue to be driven by expectations and newsflow, having nearly stopped reacting to key economic data releases—reports that, in the pre-Trump era, would have long established solid trend formations.

News that Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is scheduled to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week to discuss tariffs and trade has revived hopes for a breakthrough in negotiations. Additional optimism came from the People's Bank of China, which plans to cut its key interest rate by 0.10% and lower reserve requirements by 0.50% to stimulate economic growth.

These developments were enthusiastically received and helped boost equity markets in Asia, potentially setting the stage for a wave of optimism in the U.S. session. A slight easing of tariff-related tensions has pressured gold, triggering profit-taking and a sharp price drop. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index remains stuck in a narrow range between 90 and 100 points. However, this stagnation isn't only about trade talks but also the looming Federal Reserve rate decision.

Why Has the Forex Market Stalled?

As I previously mentioned, many in the market believe that the latest inflation and labor market data in the U.S., combined with Trump's mounting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, could push the central bank to act as early as this May meeting. While the consensus forecast still points to the Fed holding its key rate steady at 4.50%, and Fed funds futures imply a 96% probability of that outcome, such things have changed suddenly in the past.

What Could Happen If the Fed Unexpectedly Cuts Rates by 0.25%?

Such a move would almost certainly weaken the dollar. Its index could fall to 98, and any dovish signals from Jerome Powell, such as suggesting further rate cuts if inflation continues to ease and labor market pressures persist, would amplify the dollar's bearish trend.

This scenario could also ignite a further recovery in U.S. stock indices. Cryptocurrencies would likely rally. Commodities may benefit from renewed demand expectations. However, gold might not necessarily continue rising unless new or lingering geopolitical risks emerge.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Daily Forecast:

#SPX

The CFD on the S&P 500 futures is consolidating just below the resistance level of 5655.50. Optimism around a potential trade compromise between the U.S. and China, along with the possibility of monetary policy easing by the Fed, could trigger a new rally in U.S. equity markets, pushing the contract toward 5783.00. A suitable buy level may be found at 5676.85.

#NDX

The CFD on NASDAQ 100 futures is also consolidating below resistance at 20012.0. A breakthrough in U.S.-China trade negotiations and expectations of a more dovish Fed could drive renewed demand in the U.S. stock market, possibly lifting the contract to 20609.0. The 20087.4 level could serve as an entry point for long positions.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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