empty
28.05.2025 11:32 AM
Forecast for EUR/USD on May 28, 2025

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated below the 1.1374–1.1380 zone and then rebounded from it from below. This confirms the continuation of the downward move, and a close below the 50.0% retracement level at 1.1320 suggests the pair may continue to decline toward the 1.1260–1.1282 zone. A rebound from any level or support zone could spark a renewed bullish advance, preserving the uptrend.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern on the hourly chart has shifted. The most recent upward wave broke above the previous high, and the last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low. This confirms a bullish trend. The current trend can only be considered over if the pair consolidates below the 1.1260–1.1282 support zone. That would mark a new downward wave breaking the previous low.

Recent news of the suspension of tariff hikes for the EU supported the bears, but it may not be enough to break the bullish trend. The fundamental backdrop on Tuesday again favored the bears for the second day in a row. The only report of the day—on U.S. durable goods orders—came out better than expected. However, the data was not genuinely positive, as April orders fell by 6.3% following a 7.6% surge in March. This signals the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs is beginning to show in economic indicators—and not in the best way. U.S. GDP declined by 0.3% in Q1, a rare occurrence in recent years.

As a result, bears may soon run out of steam. We won't speculate on when that might happen. For now, the bullish trend remains intact, with no graphic signs of a reversal. If they emerge, then we can reassess for a potential bearish shift.

This image is no longer relevant

On the H4 chart, the pair has turned in favor of the euro and continues rising toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1495. A previous bearish divergence resulted in only a minor pullback. A bullish divergence is forming on the CCI indicator, which could halt the local decline and support a new upward move.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

This image is no longer relevant

In the most recent COT report, long positions held by speculators declined by 3,507. Short positions rose by 6,814. Net positioning remains bullish, largely due to Donald Trump's policies.

There are currently 206,000 long positions versus 132,000 short positions. The gap continues to widen in favor of the bulls. This means the euro remains in demand, while the dollar does not. The trend has persisted for 16 consecutive weeks, with large players reducing short exposure and increasing longs.

The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed continues to favor the dollar on paper, but Trump's trade policies overshadow this advantage, threatening to push the U.S. into recession with long-term consequences.

News Calendar – May 28

  • EU: German Unemployment Rate (07:55 UTC)
  • U.S.: FOMC Meeting Minutes (18:00 UTC)

The economic calendar for Wednesday includes two key entries. However, the fundamental impact is expected to be weak. Bears are unlikely to get the support they need from these events.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Short positions were valid after a close below the 1.1374–1.1380 zone, targeting 1.1320 and 1.1282. The first target has already been reached. Long positions are advisable on a rebound from the 1.1260–1.1282 support zone (hourly chart), with targets at 1.1320 and back toward 1.1374–1.1380. The bears are attacking, but their momentum may be fading.

Fibonacci Levels:

  • Hourly chart: based on 1.1574–1.1066
  • 4-hour chart: based on 1.1214–1.0179
Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast. Current Market Situation

From a technical standpoint, gold on the 4-hour chart has established acceptance below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), signaling a potential continuation of the decline. Moreover, oscillators

Irina Yanina 18:27 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for June 24-28, 2025: sell below $3,327 (21 SMA - 200 EMA)

This area of 3,300 represents strong support, but we believe gold could make a technical rebound in the coming hours toward 3,327. At this point, it could resume its bearish

Dimitrios Zappas 18:05 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for June 24-28, 2025: sell below 1.1620 (triple top - 8/8 Murray)

The H4 chart shows a triple-top formation pattern. If the euro price falls below 1.1620, the signal will be negative, and we could sell with a target at 1.1533. EUR/USD

Dimitrios Zappas 18:04 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Forex forecast 24/06/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USDX, GBP/USD, Oil and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful

Sebastian Seliga 12:35 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on June 24, 2025

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair on the hourly chart performed two rebounds from the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1454, reversed in favor of the euro, and rose

Samir Klishi 10:48 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on June 24, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday rebounded from the support zone of 1.3357–1.3373, reversed in favor of the British pound, and consolidated above the 1.3425–1.3444 zone

Samir Klishi 10:44 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Could Gold's weakening correction succeed in bringing it to the 3320 level, Tuesday, June 24, 2025.

1. Market Sentiment Summary: After Gold rose quite significantly yesterday, this morning Gold experienced a downward correction of up to -0.39% where the correction was a combination of the current

Arief Makmur 10:43 2025-06-24 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for June 24, 2025

On Monday, the euro successfully broke through the linear resistance at 1.1535 and the MACD line. From the opening of the Pacific session, the price continued to rise steadily toward

Laurie Bailey 04:51 2025-06-24 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for June 24, 2025

GBP/USD The bulls in the British pound forcefully overcame the pressure from the bears, who had been anticipating the 1.3208 target. However, at this point, the resistance of the MACD

Laurie Bailey 04:47 2025-06-24 UTC+2

USD/JPY Forecast for June 24, 2025

USD/JPY The technical picture on Monday may shape future developments in the medium term. The week began with a gap up, followed by the formation of a long upper shadow

Laurie Bailey 04:44 2025-06-24 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.