The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday, which had started on Monday. Let us recall that on Monday, everyone expected a "rollercoaster" right at the market open, i.e., during the night. However, the real action came closer to the evening. The first two trading days of the week were packed with events—of various kinds—capable of supporting both the dollar and the euro. So why did the U.S. currency fall out of favor with the market once again?
If we were to list all the reasons, one article certainly wouldn't be enough. So, let's start with the most local and obvious ones. As early as Monday, we mentioned that the dollar might benefit from another escalation in the Middle East, this time initiated by the U.S. But just think: can the dollar even hypothetically be considered a "safe haven" if one of the warring parties is the U.S.?
The second reason is that Trump launched a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, and the next day, missiles were flying back—toward Qatar, Israel, and U.S. military bases. And, notably, Iran hit the American bases.
The third reason is that Trump thanked Iran for warning Washington in advance about the upcoming strike. Honestly, the only word that comes to mind here is "farce." Can this even be a war if the participants warn each other before launching attacks? Naturally, the market immediately concluded that this was not a war but a performance. That might be better in some ways—since human casualties were avoided, and that is most important. But at the same time, if the dollar had any hopes of strengthening due to a Middle East escalation, the market realized yesterday that this "escalation" was theatrical and staged.
And it gets even more bizarre. On Tuesday morning, Donald Trump announced a ceasefire. The U.S. President was so eager to establish peace somewhere—anywhere—that he declared the war over without waiting for any official statements from Iran or Israel. And just a few hours later, Iranian missiles took to the skies again. Once more, if this weren't about deadly weapons of mass destruction, the whole situation could be considered a comedy.
For the rest of Tuesday, Trump posted angry messages every half hour on his own social network, expressing his dissatisfaction not only with Iran but also with Israel. In the afternoon, Trump tried to persuade Israel not to launch retaliatory strikes, and we're left wondering—does the U.S. President believe that Iranian and Israeli leaders check his Twitter feed before initiating missile attacks?
Frankly, we don't even know how to respond to this circus anymore. But the market certainly does. Why should it buy the dollar—even without the caveat "if Donald Trump remains president"? America has turned from a country with the strongest economy and military into a laughingstock. And these are just the reasons the dollar fell on Monday and Tuesday. Should we even bother listing why the U.S. currency has fallen for five months?
The average volatility for the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of June 25 is 74 pips, which is characterized as "moderate." We expect the pair to move between the levels of 1.1551 and 1.1699 on Wednesday. The long-term regression channel is directed upward, indicating a continued bullish trend. The CCI indicator entered the overbought zone, which triggered only a minor downward correction.
Nearest Support Levels:
S1 – 1.1597
S2 – 1.1475
S3 – 1.1353
Nearest Resistance Levels:
R1 – 1.1719
R2 – 1.1841
R3 – 1.1963
Trading Recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues its upward trend. Trump's foreign and domestic policies remain the strongest pressure factor on the U.S. dollar. Additionally, the market interprets or ignores much of the incoming data negatively for the dollar. We continue to observe a complete lack of interest in buying the dollar under any circumstances.
If the price is below the moving average, short positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1475 and 1.1353, though a significant decline in the pair is unlikely under current conditions. If the price is above the moving average, long positions can be considered with targets at 1.1699 and 1.1719 in continuation of the trend.
Explanation of Illustrations:
Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.
Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.
Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.
Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.
CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.
