Forex Analysis & Reviews: 02.07.2025 - Forecast for EUR/USD on July...

02.07.2025 11:07 AM

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 2, 2025

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair made an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above the 1.1802 level. Today, a rebound from this level would favor the US dollar and a decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1712. A close above 1.1802 would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next corrective level at 1.1888. The bullish trend remains intact, and the euro continues to rise almost daily.

The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, and the new upward wave has already surpassed the previous high. This indicates a renewed bullish trend. The lack of progress in US–China and US–EU trade talks, the Federal Reserve meeting's ineffectiveness, and the Middle East conflict have all failed to support the dollar. As expected, the previous bearish trend proved weak and short-lived.

The news background on Tuesday was abundant, but of little value to either bulls or bears. For bearish traders, it is especially difficult to identify any supporting factors right now. On a global scale, topics such as the new global trade architecture, political events in the US, changes to US legislation, and Donald Trump's ongoing conflicts continue to pressure the dollar—even in the absence of major economic reports. In 2025, the market has reached a point where economic factors no longer play a decisive role in a market directly tied to the economy.

Nonetheless, the eurozone inflation report showed acceleration to 2% in June, in line with expectations. Manufacturing PMIs from the eurozone and Germany were largely in line with forecasts. Bulls had few reasons to push the market yesterday—but virtually no reasons to retreat either.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the 1.1680 level, which supports the continuation of growth toward the next Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1851. A rebound from 1.1851 would favor the US dollar and a short-term pullback within the still-valid upward trend channel. A close above 1.1851 would increase the chance of further growth toward 1.2066. No divergence is currently forming on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

In the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 2,980 long positions and closed 6,602 short positions. Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish—thanks largely to Donald Trump—and continues to strengthen. Speculators now hold 224,000 long positions and 112,000 short positions, with the gap between the two consistently widening. This shows strong demand for the euro and a clear lack of interest in the dollar. The situation remains unchanged.

For twenty-one consecutive weeks, large players have been cutting short positions and increasing longs. While there is a significant interest rate differential between the ECB and the Fed, Trump's policies carry more weight for traders, as they pose risks of recession and other long-term, structural issues for the US economy.

Economic calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

Eurozone – Unemployment Rate (09:00 UTC)
US – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC)
Eurozone – ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech (14:15 UTC)

On July 2, the economic calendar features several notable events. However, the overall impact on market sentiment may remain limited, as similar past events have failed to stir trader interest.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

I would only consider selling the pair today if it rebounds from the 1.1802 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1712.I previously recommended buying from the 1.1454 level, targeting 1.1574, 1.1645, 1.1712, and 1.1802—all of which have now been reached. New buying opportunities may arise after a close above 1.1802, with a target at 1.1888.

Fibonacci retracement grids are based on the 1.1574–1.1066 range on the hourly chart and the 1.1214–1.0179 range on the 4-hour chart.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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# EURUSD Technical analysis

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