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02.07.2025 06:35 PM
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – July 2nd (U.S. Session)
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Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Euro

The first test of the 1.1789 price level occurred when the MACD had already significantly moved below the zero line. The second test of this level coincided with the MACD being in the oversold zone, which led to the implementation of Buy Scenario #2. However, another upward movement in the euro did not materialize.

Weak data showing that the eurozone unemployment rate reached 6.3% in May — contrary to economists' expectations — may have created negative pressure on the euro. Additionally, the geopolitical situation regarding trade tariffs and new statements from Trump about ending delays on tariff enforcement also weighed on risk assets.

In the second half of the day, the euro is likely to remain under pressure. A stronger U.S. dollar, supported by solid macroeconomic indicators, is expected to add to the downward pressure on the euro. The ADP employment report has a substantial impact on the FX market. Released a few days before the official U.S. Labor Department report, it serves as a key labor market indicator and often forecasts broader trends. Given the Federal Reserve's close monitoring of labor data when setting interest rates, the ADP report's influence on currency pairs — especially EUR/USD — is significant. A solid ADP reading usually boosts the dollar, as a strong labor market reinforces confidence in the U.S. economy, allowing the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for longer.

As for the intraday strategy, I'll focus mainly on implementing Buy and Sell Scenarios #1 and #2.

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Buy Signal

Scenario #1:Buy the euro at 1.1782 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1822. I plan to exit the market at 1.1822 and sell from that level in the opposite direction for a 30–35 point pullback. A euro rally is more likely after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the euro after two consecutive tests of the 1.1759 level, while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. Growth can be expected toward 1.1782 and 1.1822.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:Sell the euro after reaching 1.1759 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1732, where I plan to exit the market and buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point upward correction. Selling pressure will return if U.S. data is strong.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the euro after two consecutive tests of the 1.1782 level, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will cap the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A drop toward 1.1759 and 1.1732 can be expected.

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Chart Legend:

  • Thin green line – Entry price for buying the instrument
  • Thick green line – Target price for setting Take Profit or manual exit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
  • Thin red line – Entry price for selling the instrument
  • Thick red line – Target price for setting Take Profit or manual exit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
  • MACD Indicator – Entry decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important Note:Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when entering the market. Before key fundamental reports are released, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without stop-losses, you risk quickly losing your entire deposit — especially if you're not using proper money management and are trading large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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