empty
07.07.2025 08:29 AM
What to Watch on July 7th? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

This image is no longer relevant

Very few macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Monday, and none of them are significant. Let us recall that Friday was practically a semi-holiday, as the United States celebrated Independence Day. Monday may not be much more interesting. Germany will release its industrial production report, which in recent years has rarely shown strong figures. However, in 2025, this has no relevance for the euro, which continues to rise amid the dollar's collapse. The eurozone will also publish its retail sales report, which is also unlikely to draw traders' attention under current conditions.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

This image is no longer relevant

There are absolutely no noteworthy fundamental events on Monday. Over the past two weeks, numerous speeches were delivered by key officials from the ECB, the Fed, and even the Bank of England (which is a rarity in itself). However, very few important statements were made, and they had virtually no impact on overall market sentiment. The ECB fears rising inflation, the Fed fears rising inflation, the Bank of England fears rising inflation, and collectively, they all fear economic uncertainty due to Donald Trump's tariffs.

The most significant issue for the market remains the trade war, with no signs of resolution or de-escalation in sight. In the near future, tensions may escalate sharply, as Donald Trump signed 3 out of 75 deals just days before the end of the "grace period." Moreover, the market doesn't understand what there is to celebrate if all the tariffs introduced by Trump remain in place. The situation with China is completely unclear—there were reports of a deal, but no information has been released regarding its content or scope. As for the deal with Vietnam, it's hard to say what effect it might have at all.

General Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the new week, both currency pairs may show very sluggish movement, as no important events or publications are scheduled for the day. As a result, we may see a second consecutive day with low volatility and a lack of trending movement.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

  1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout of a level). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
  2. If two or more false trades are opened near a specific level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
  3. In a flat market, any pair may produce many false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
  4. Trades should be opened during the time window between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session. After that, all trades should be closed manually.
  5. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade based on MACD signals only when there is solid volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
  6. If two levels are located too close to each other (within 5 to 20 points), they should be treated as a support or resistance zone.
  7. After the price moves 15–20 points in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

  • Support and resistance levels – price levels that serve as targets when opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be set near them.
  • Red lines – channels or trendlines that indicate the current trend and show which direction is preferable for trading at the moment.
  • MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line are auxiliary indicators that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the economic calendar) can significantly impact the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution during their release or exit the market to avoid a sharp reversal against the preceding trend.

For beginners trading on the forex market, it's important to remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and applying sound money management are key to long-term success in trading.

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Stanislav Polyanskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Will There Be a Deal Between the EU and the US?

The European Union has ultimately made a move toward Donald Trump. However, calling it a compromise would be inaccurate, as it is Brussels—not Washington—that is largely conceding. Nevertheless, media reports

Chin Zhao 20:23 2025-07-24 UTC+2

EUR/USD – Analysis and Forecast

Today, the pair is retreating from its daily high. According to European Commission officials, the EU and the US are close to reaching an agreement that would include 15% tariffs

Irina Yanina 14:00 2025-07-24 UTC+2

USD/JPY – Analysis and Forecast

Today, the pair broke a three-day losing streak, as Japan's domestic political uncertainty, disappointing manufacturing PMI data, and prevailing risk appetite remain key factors limiting the yen's growth

Irina Yanina 13:55 2025-07-24 UTC+2

XAU/USD – Analysis and Forecast

Currently, gold continues to lose ground. Recent news of progress in trade negotiations between the United States and Japan, as well as reports that the US and the European Union

Irina Yanina 12:23 2025-07-24 UTC+2

USD/CHF – Analysis and Forecast

The uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy is holding back the growth of the U.S. dollar, while trade-related optimism continues to undermine the Swiss franc's status as a safe-haven asset

Irina Yanina 11:43 2025-07-24 UTC+2

Why Isn't the Euro Falling Against the US Dollar? (There Is a Possibility of Limited Downside in EUR/USD and GBP/USD)

The euro continues to show steady growth against the dollar, which may seem irrational at first glance, but there are significant reasons behind this. Let's examine them. Today, the European

Pati Gani 09:47 2025-07-24 UTC+2

The Market Has Made It Clear

The economy remains strong, and U.S. trade deals with other countries are bringing clarity. What could be better for the S&P 500? Perhaps a fireworks display of corporate earnings that

Marek Petkovich 08:57 2025-07-24 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 24? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for release on Thursday, but they will all be similar in nature. Business activity indices for the services and manufacturing sectors for July will

Paolo Greco 07:12 2025-07-24 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 24. Trump's Tariffs: No One Will Be Spared

The GBP/USD currency pair also continued its upward movement on Wednesday, showing no reaction to the signing of a trade agreement with Japan. As we can see, even a form

Paolo Greco 04:02 2025-07-24 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 24. The Fourth Lucky One!

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday, and this time even the signing of yet another trade agreement couldn't save the dollar... So, Donald Trump signed

Paolo Greco 04:02 2025-07-24 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.