The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of the EUR/USD instrument has not changed for several months. The upward segment of the trend continues to develop, and the news background keeps supporting all currencies except the U.S. dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump was intended to increase budget revenues and eliminate the trade deficit. However, these targets have yet to be achieved. Trade agreements are being signed with great difficulty, and Trump's "One Big Law" is expected to increase the U.S. national debt by 3 trillion dollars in the coming years. The market has rated the results of Trump's first six months in office rather poorly, seeing his actions as a threat to American stability and prosperity.

Currently, wave 3 is presumably still forming, and it may become much more extended than it is now. However, its internal structure has taken a five-wave form, which suggests it could be nearing completion. If this assumption is correct, the price will continue rising in the coming months, but in the short term, we may see a corrective wave pattern. The likelihood of Trump abandoning his trade policy is close to zero.

The EUR/USD rate showed almost no change on Monday. Demand for the U.S. dollar continues to grow, but so slowly that the dollar feels almost no support from the market. And is there any real support at all? It's important to remember that a currency can rise not only due to growing demand but also due to falling demand for other currencies. That is precisely why the euro and pound have appreciated significantly in recent months—demand for the U.S. dollar has plummeted. Based on this, it is easy to conclude that the market may have slightly reduced its demand for the euro in recent weeks, leading to a modest strengthening of the dollar. However, the number of dollar buyers has not increased.

Last week, Trump did everything possible to discourage market participants from buying the dollar. While his actions are not directly aimed at weakening the U.S. currency, that is the actual result. Increasing tariffs on goods from over two dozen countries marks a new escalation of the trade war, which has been weighing heavily on the dollar for the past six months. On Monday, it was reported that new tariffs would be imposed on the European Union and Mexico. Tomorrow, another dozen countries might be affected. Based on last week's news flow, I see no reason to expect dollar growth this week.

However, the wave structure still favors the U.S. dollar. Following a clear, classical five-wave upward structure, readers can reasonably expect a three-wave decline. Currently, only one wave is visible, which means EUR/USD could continue a slow downward correction for several more weeks.

Conclusion

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues to develop an upward trend. The wave pattern remains entirely dependent on the news background, particularly on Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy, with no positive changes in sight. The target for this trend segment could extend up to the 1.25 level. Accordingly, I continue to consider buying opportunities with targets near 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level, and potentially higher. In the near term, a corrective wave sequence is expected, so new long positions on the euro should be considered only after this correction is complete.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are harder to trade and often prone to changes.
2. If you're uncertain about the market situation, it's better to stay out.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.