Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 147.94 price level occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar, which increased to over 60 pips.

The acceleration of inflation in the U.S. prompted investors to continue buying the dollar and selling the Japanese yen. The data pointed to persistent inflationary pressure, reducing the likelihood of a swift monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. This, in turn, led to a strengthening of the dollar relative to other major currencies.

An additional driver of dollar strength and the USD/JPY pair yesterday was U.S. President Donald Trump's statement that he would likely impose tariffs on pharmaceutical products by the end of the month. Tariffs will also be introduced on semiconductors. This suggests that the new tariffs could come into force simultaneously with broader reciprocal duties set to take effect on August 1. These statements sparked a wave of concern in the currency markets, as they indicate a possible further escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries, particularly Japan, a key producer of both semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. Investors fear that the imposition of tariffs may negatively impact the profits of Japanese export-oriented companies and lead to retaliatory measures by Japan, ultimately slowing global economic growth.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 148.96 (green line on the chart) with a target of 149.37 (thicker green line on the chart). Around the 149.37 level, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 pip pullback from the level). It is best to buy the pair on corrections and significant dips in the USD/JPY exchange rate.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 148.68 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 148.96 and 149.37 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 148.68 level is updated (indicated by the red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 148.31, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 pip rebound from the level). Strong pressure on the pair is unlikely today.

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 148.96 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 148.68 and 148.31 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.