Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 148.68 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already dropped significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of this level triggered Buy Scenario #2 for the dollar, resulting in a 20-point rise.

In the second half of the day, markets will focus on the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), changes in industrial production volumes, and speeches by FOMC members Thomas Barkin and Michael S. Barr. These events could provoke significant volatility in financial markets. Traders should be prepared for potential turbulence and adjust their investment plans accordingly. The PPI is a key indicator of inflation in the economy. A reading above expectations could signal rising inflationary pressure and prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for longer.

Industrial production dynamics reflect the state of the manufacturing sector. An increase in production volumes indicates economic expansion, which is generally positive for the U.S. dollar.

Speeches by FOMC members—particularly Thomas Barkin and Michael S. Barr—are of special interest, as they offer insight into the Fed's current views on monetary policy. Investors will closely analyze their remarks to assess the likelihood of future interest rate cuts. Any signals of a policy shift could trigger a strong market reaction.

As for intraday strategy, I will continue to rely on the execution of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point near 148.83 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 149.37 (thicker green line). Around 149.37, I'll exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point retracement. A strong rally in the pair is possible as the uptrend continues. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price is tested twice at 148.63 while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and could trigger a reversal to the upside. The expected targets are 148.83 and 149.37.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 148.63 level is broken (red line on the chart), which could lead to a sharp drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 148.22, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a buy position, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Selling pressure may return if there is a sharp drop in U.S. prices. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price is tested twice at 148.83 while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may lead to a downward reversal. Expected targets: 148.63 and 148.22.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further growth is unlikely above this point
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further decline is unlikely below this point
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, use overbought and oversold zones as reference

Important:Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before key fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-losses can quickly lead to a complete loss of your deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan—like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market sentiment is a losing strategy for intraday traders.