Arthur Hayes, a well-known crypto enthusiast and entrepreneur, is once again sharing his outlook on when Bitcoin will reveal its true nature. According to him, it all comes down to the US Treasury’s “financial cushion,” which currently stands at $816 billion and is moving toward the coveted $850 billion mark. Once that threshold is crossed, the liquidity drain will stop, and capital will begin flowing into other markets, including cryptocurrencies.

It sounds like precise math, but with one caveat: Hayes clarifies that “only up” does not mean a lack of turbulence. Volatility will remain an intrinsic feature of the crypto market, and Bitcoin will continue its familiar rollercoaster behavior with an overall uptrend.

Hayes is convinced that cryptocurrencies will be the main beneficiaries of this process thanks to their transparency and independence from traditional financial institutions. It is an optimistic view, especially in light of his previous prediction that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by the end of the decade, albeit on the condition that the Fed Chair is replaced.

In short, according to Hayes, there is one important condition: the US Treasury should collect the remaining $34 billion to complete its “cushion.” Afterwards, Bitcoin will enter its “only up” era. However, forecasts in the crypto world are often negated by black swans.