Although oil shows some volatility, it is still trading at around $77 per barrel. Today, the asset is expected to go down, weighed down by the upcoming vote in the US Congress on a deal to raise the debt ceiling.
If lawmakers vote for the proposal, the risk of a default in the United States, which has been the focus of global media lately, will be eliminated. This problem will be off the radar for at least a year. This will lead to a local rise in the dollar followed by a decline in other trading instruments, including oil.
However, reports of several drone attacks on Moscow increase the risks of uncertainty and provoke an escalation of the conflict with the world's largest energy supplier. This in turn creates the risk of oil supply disruptions. The combination of these two factors may well keep oil relatively stable.
According to the trading chart, Brent crude is hemmed in a range. Nevertheless, judging by recent price moves, an uptrend remains intact. In order for the volume of long positions to increase, the price needs to consolidate above the 79 mark. Otherwise, the benchmark will continue trading sideways between the levels of 74 and 77.50.
Meanwhile, gold remains under pressure. The yellow metal has already dipped below $1,940 per ounce.
If the price fixes below the 1,950 mark, the asset will extend losses, heading toward the level of 1,900. Alternatively, a return above $1,955 per ounce will result in further gains.
The dynamic of gold prices depends on expectations of the outcome of the vote in the US Congress. There is almost no doubt that the debt ceiling will be lifted, as in all previous years. However, given that the news media have caused panic about a looming default in the United States, a rise in the national debt limit will be perceived as a bailout from disaster, thus contributing to a stronger greenback and lower gold prices. In other words, gold could suffer heavy losses. However, its decline is likely to be short-lived as the dollar is extremely overbought.
The ruble’s reaction to the reported drone attack in Moscow was instant. Since the opening bell, the US dollar has been trying to rise above 81 rubles. Given a panic mode in the market, the dollar may well rise to 82 rubles or even higher.
The greenback has hit a new local high of the ascending cycle, which indicates that bullish sentiment prevails. However, a buy signal will be confirmed only after the quote consolidates above the 81 mark. Otherwise, the market may return to the recent range and trade flat.
That's all for now. We continue to follow developments in the financial markets. Subscribe to our channel and follow the news with us. See you soon!

00:00 Introduction
00:19 The U.S. government debt vote and trading instrument prices
00:44 Oil. Risks of uncertainty
01:08 Brent
01:35 Gold
02:02 Gold and US government debt price movement
02:46 USD/RUB
03:24 Conclusion

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